Santos vs Mirassol — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Tired legs and a blunt visiting attack are the case here. Both teams flew to Ecuador in midweek and came home with 0-0 ties. Santos got theirs at Macara, Mirassol at LDU Quito, and each side has had only 3 days to recover. Santos have won 9 of their last 17 games and score almost 2 goals a game. Those numbers are kinder than the truth. Two big wins over weak Sudamericana opposition pad them out, and in the league Santos sit 14th with a minus 3 goal difference. Mirassol are the bigger reason to expect a quiet game. They have won one of their nine away games and score less than a goal a game on the road. They have no win in their last 5 and have barely made a chance in the last four. Six players are out, including the suspended Denilson. That points to a slow game with Santos probing and Mirassol sitting deep. Santos should find a way through in the end, and a 1-0 home win is our read. Now the honest part. The last 10 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and most of them had 3 or more. Santos's own games average almost 3 goals in total, so an early goal would change the shape of this. We still want the quiet game.