Manchester City vs Bournemouth — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Bournemouth do not let games run away. They did not lose any of their last 15, winning 6 and tying 9, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. On the road they let in less than a goal a trip. That is the main reason we want a controlled night here. City will have the ball for most of it. They score almost 2 goals a game and won 5 of their last 7 at home. Doku is out and Savinho is ill, so two of the quickest ways they open up a packed defense are missing. Patient City sides tend to win these 2-0, not 4-0. Bournemouth are short too. Christie is suspended, and Kroupi, Adli and Araujo are all out, so there is less pace on the break. They have not played a competitive game in 91 days either. Expect them to sit deep and stay tight rather than trade blows. A 2-0 home win is our read, with the second goal arriving late. That leaves this well inside what we want. The honest worry is history. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 3 goals, and City had 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 17 games. An early goal each way and this gets loose fast. We still expect City to control it and keep the total down.