Sporting Gijon vs Burgos — Tips & Analysis

Burgos +0.25: Burgos are the reason this game will be tight, and that is exactly why we want them. They have won 9, tied 5 and lost only 1 of their last 15 games. They let in less than a goal a game, which is far better than anything Sporting have managed. Sporting Gijon have won 6 and lost 7 of their last 15. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. Their opener flattered them. It finished 0-0 at home, and Sabadell created much the better chances. Sporting are also short of bodies. Hugo Guillamon tore a calf muscle on his debut, and Alex Lizancos is out with a knee injury. Burgos come in with four wins and a tie in their last 5 games, and they score more than a goal a game. Their games average 2 goals in total, so winning low scoring ones is normal for them. The last 11 meetings have averaged under 2 goals, and Sporting only lead that head to head 4W-4D-3L. The most likely finish is 0-1 to Burgos, and that lands this pick. The warning is Sporting's home form. They have won 4 of their 7 games there and let in less than a goal a game, so a home win here would be no shock. We still want Burgos with a head start in a game this close.