Atalanta vs Sassuolo — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Neither of these teams is scoring enough to worry us. Atalanta have won only 3 of their last 16 games and tied 8 of them. At home they score less than a goal a game, with a 1W-4D-3L record there. They come in 3 days after a 0-0 in Europe, and they are without centre backs Isak Hien and Giorgio Scalvini. A patched back line usually means a careful game plan, not an open one. Sassuolo have not won away in six tries, taking 2 ties and 4 losses. They score less than a goal a game on the road. They are missing Kone, Paz and Cande, and Berardi is a doubt. This is the first weekend of the season, so both teams are still finding a shape. 9 of Atalanta's last 16 games had 2 goals or fewer, and their last home game finished 0-0. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish, and 2 goals is comfortably inside what we want. The history says otherwise, and it is worth respecting. Atalanta have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, and those games averaged more than 3 goals. Sassuolo have also landed on exactly 3 goals in 8 of their last 14, so a fourth goal is the thing to fear. We still want the quieter game with these two attacks in this state.