Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — Tips & Analysis

Palmeiras -0.75: Palmeiras top the league on 48 points. Vasco sit 19th on 22 and are inside the relegation places. That gap is the whole case for backing the home side here. Palmeiras score almost 2 goals a game and let in less than one. They have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 20 games. They have not lost by 2 or more once in that run. Vasco have won only 6 of their last 19 games and lost by 2 or more four times. They also played in Paraguay three days ago. Now they travel to Sao Paulo on 3 days of rest. The shape of the night is easy to picture. Vasco drop deep and defend. Palmeiras work the ball wide and wait for the opening. Palmeiras have won 11 of the last 20 meetings and lost only 3. Once Vasco have to chase the game, a second goal should follow late. A 2-0 home win is our read. The worry is patience. Palmeiras have been blunt at their own ground, tying four of nine games there and scoring just over a goal a game. Paulinho, R. Sosa and Jefte are all out, so the attack is thinner than usual. Vasco won 4-1 in midweek and are fighting for their lives. We still expect Palmeiras to win this one clearly.