Brighton vs Aston Villa — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Villa's games rarely stay quiet. Ten of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals, and that is the strongest reason we want goals here. Brighton come into this in a bad spot. They played a goalless game in Tromso on Thursday and have had only 3 days to recover. Villa have had 11. Ferguson and Minteh are out, with Mitoma, Baleba and Tzimas all doubtful. Brighton still score, just over a goal a game, but they let in about the same. They had 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 16 games. Villa score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than one. They are missing Onana and Joao Gomes from central midfield, which is the part of a team that slows a game down. Two patched-up midfields usually mean space, and space means chances. The head to head backs it up. The last 18 meetings averaged almost 3 goals, and Villa have won 10 of them to Brighton's 2. A 1-2 to Villa is our read, and that gets us home. The risk is a flat opening night. If Brighton rotate heavily and sit deep after their European trip, this could stay quiet for an hour. Villa have the better attack and the fresher legs, so we still want the busier game.