Tips — Tuesday, 29 September 2026

💬 Pakistan cannot score and they cannot stop goals either, and that gap is why we want the Philippines to win well. Pakistan have scored 4 goals in their last 16 games and let in more than 2 a game. They have won 1 of those 16 and lost by 2 or more in 9 of them. Thailand beat them 4-0 three days ago and they sit bottom of the group. The Philippines have won 7 of their last 17 games and score more than a goal a game. They have looked blunt against the better teams, losing 0-1 to Vietnam, 0-1 to Malaysia and 0-1 to Thailand. Against weak teams it is a different story. They won 4-1 at Laos, beat Timor-Leste 4-1 and 3-1, and won 2-0 in the Maldives. This is a tournament game on neutral ground, so neither side is at home. Pakistan will sit very deep after letting in four, but holding that shape for 90 minutes against this gap in class is hard. A 3-0 Philippines win is the most likely finish, and that is well clear of what we need. The risk is the Philippines finding the net at all. They have not scored in three of their last four games. Both teams have had only 3 days rest, and the Philippines squad is young, so changes are likely. We still expect a clear win here.

💬 Vietnam are the better team here, and that is the case for backing them. They have won 12 of their last 15 games, tied 2 and lost only 1. They let in less than a goal a game across that run. They have had the better of these meetings lately too, winning 3 of the last 4, including 2-0 in Thailand in August. Thailand are dangerous as well. They score more than 2 goals a game, they put four past Pakistan on matchday one, and they have won 11 of their last 16. This game is played at a tournament ground, so neither side is at home and Thailand get no crowd behind them. On neutral ground Vietnam are the stronger side. Both teams sit on three points, with Thailand ahead only on goal difference, so a tie does neither of them real harm. The last 13 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, which tells you how these nights usually go. A 1-1 tie is the most likely finish, and that is enough for us. The one real worry is Vietnam's attack. They have lost Xuan Son for the rest of the tournament, and that costs them a key attacker. Thailand have also won by 2 or more in 9 of their last 16 games, so they can win this outright. We still want Vietnam to come through this without losing.

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and the last time they met nobody did. Their last 7 meetings have averaged under 2 goals in total, and the most recent one finished 0-0. Comoros have won 1 of their last 14 games and score less than a goal a game. They lost 3-1 in Cameroon on matchday one, and Warmed Omari's goal was their only reply. Namibia are built on defending. They let in less than a goal a game across their last 18 games and have tied 6 of them. Their games have averaged under 2 goals in total, and only 6 of those 18 had 3 or more. They won 1-0 against Congo last time out through a Bethuel Muzeu header. Away from home Namibia score less than a goal a game, so they will not come here to open up. Expect a cramped game with long spells of nothing, and neither side willing to take a risk. A 0-0 is the most likely finish, and that is exactly what we want. There are warnings though. Comoros have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 14 games, and their home games include a 4-4 tie with Yemen. Both sides have also had 5 days rest, so legs will be fresh. We still want the quiet, low-scoring night.

💬 Algeria are the better team here, but they do not win these games by wide margins, and that is what this pick rests on. Algeria have won 8 of their last 14 games, yet they won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of them. Burundi make life hard in Bujumbura. They have let in under a goal a game in their 7 home games and won 2 of those. They also lost only 1-0 in Togo on matchday one, and they will sit deep again. The pitch helps them too. The Intwari Stadium surface is artificial, and that flattens the gap between a strong technical side and a stubborn home team. Algeria have also been scoring more than the chances they create, and that kind of finishing usually cools off. Only 4 of Burundi's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so a quiet night is normal for them. A 0-1 Algeria win looks the most likely result, one goal from a set piece or a moment of quality and then a game managed out. The risk is real. Algeria's games have almost 3 goals in total on average, and they beat Burundi 4-0 in January 2024. The quality is there to add late goals once the door opens. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Goals are the story here. Senegal score more than 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Ethiopia are not built to shut that down. They let in more than a goal a game and have lost by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 17. Ethiopia do score in front of their own crowd, and that is the other half of this. They score more than a goal a game across their 8 home games and won 4 of them, so a Senegal clean sheet is far from routine. Senegal also need this badly. Patrick Vieira's side were held 1-1 by Mozambique in his first competitive game and are still chasing a first win under him. That points to a team pushing bodies forward rather than sitting on a narrow lead. Both sides carry busy games with them. Senegal's games have more than 3 goals in total on average, and Ethiopia's have almost 3. A 1-2 Senegal win looks the most likely score, and that gets us there. The honest warning is that Senegal let in just over a goal a game and have the players to control this at 2-0. There is also no history between these two to lean on. We still expect the goals to come.

💬 Morocco are much the better team here, but they are not a side that runs up big scores. Their games have just over 2 goals in total on average, and only 5 of their last 15 had 3 or more. They opened this group with a controlled 2-0 win over Gabon, and that is their pattern. Take the lead, keep the clean sheet, save the legs. Morocco have won 10 of their last 15 and let in under a goal a game. They won by 3 or more goals in just 3 of those 15. Achraf Hakimi is suspended and Nayef Aguerd is unavailable, so the team is lighter than usual. Lesotho will not open this up. They score under a goal a game and lost 2-1 to Niger on matchday one, so they will sit deep and hand over the ball. There is no home crowd either. The game has been moved to Bloemfontein in South Africa because Lesotho's own grounds do not meet the standards. Neither side gets a lift from the stands. A 0-2 Morocco win looks the most likely result, and a quiet afternoon fits both teams. The risk is the obvious one. Morocco beat Lesotho 7-0 in November 2024, and their last two meetings averaged 4 goals in total. One early goal could turn this into a big win. We still want the tighter game.

💬 Egypt do not score enough to blow this open, and that is the heart of this pick. They have tied 7 of their last 15 games and score just over a goal a game. They also opened this group with a 0-0 tie against Angola. Mohamed Salah is not travelling either. Egypt have rested him because the artificial turf in Juba carries a higher injury risk than grass, and he is their one game changer. Egypt's games have just over 2 goals in total on average, and they won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15. South Sudan will make this awkward. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 4 of their last 20, so they stay in games even when they are second best. Expect them to pack the middle of the pitch on a surface they know well. A 0-1 Egypt win looks the most likely result, a single goal and then a game managed out. The risk sits with the home defending. South Sudan let in more than 2 goals a game across their 9 home games, and 10 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals. Egypt only need a couple of early chances to change the shape of this. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Belarus barely score, and that is the heart of this pick. They score under a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 12. They have won once in that run, tying 5 and losing 6. Finland are not the free-scoring side their last result suggests. That 7-0 came away at San Marino, the weakest team in Europe, and their home game before it was a 0-1 loss to Malta. Finland have won 2 and lost 5 of their last seven home games, and they score under a goal a game in Helsinki. Belarus will sit deep and try to keep this small. That mix does not make goals. Only 4 of Belarus's last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them, and the one previous meeting between these teams had 2 goals in it. Finland should win, but slowly rather than in a rush. A 2-0 Finland win looks the most likely result, and that keeps this pick on the right side. The warning is a real one. Belarus have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 12, and those beatings include a 0-6 against Denmark and a 1-5 against Greece. An early Finnish goal could turn this into another long night for them. We still expect a low-scoring game.

💬 Ghana's last three home wins were all 1-0, and that pattern is the case for this pick. They have won all four home games in this run without letting a goal in, and they let in under a goal a game overall. The attack is the thin part. Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo and captain Alexander Djiku are all missing, so Ghana are short of the players who turn tight games into comfortable ones. Gambia travel well and arrive in good form, with 3 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses in their last seven away games. They let in under a goal a game on the road. Their attack is short-handed too, with Yankuba Minteh, Musa Barrow, Abdoulie Manneh and Adama Sidibeh all out. Two careful defences and two patched-up attacks point one way. Only 5 of Ghana's last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them, and Ghana's games have just over 2 goals in total on average. A 1-0 Ghana win looks the most likely result, decided by one moment on a nervy Accra night. The risk is that Ghana lost the group opener 0-2 and need this badly. If they are still level late, they will push bodies forward and the game could open up. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 This game never produces goals, and that is why this pick is on. The last four meetings brought just five goals between them, and none of the four had more than 2 goals in it. Guinea-Bissau are built to keep things tight at home. They score under a goal a game, and at their own ground they score one and let in one a game across 8 games. They won the group opener 2-0 in Tanzania, so they play with belief rather than fear. Nigeria are unbeaten in 12 games, with 9 wins and 3 ties, and they have let in just two goals in their four away games. They also do not win these games by wide margins. Seven of those 12 games were tied or won by a single goal. Victor Osimhen is ruled out with a muscle injury and Taiwo Awoniyi was called up in his place. Only 6 of Guinea-Bissau's last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. A 1-0 Nigeria win looks the most likely result, and that sits well inside this pick. The honest risk is Nigeria's scoring. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. If Guinea-Bissau chase late, Nigeria can break and add a second. We still want the tight game.

💬 Libya are hard to beat, and that is the whole case here. They have tied 7 of their last 15 games, including their last four in a row, and they have lost only 4 in that run. Libya score a goal a game and let in a goal a game, so tight games are where they live. Uganda have bigger things on their mind. They are already at the 2027 finals as co-hosts, and Paul Put has brought nine new faces into this squad. The team is being tried out rather than built to win. Uganda have scored exactly one goal and let in at least one in each of their last five games. Those five results read tie, loss, tie, loss, loss. There is no home crowd to lean on either. This game has been moved from Kampala to the new Hoima City Stadium, so neither side gets a lift from the ground. The one previous meeting between these teams finished 0-0, and both squads have had five days since their last game. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. The honest risk is Libya's attack. They did not score in either of their last two away games, with 0-0s at Palestine and Mauritius. A 1-0 Uganda win is very much live. We are still happy to back Libya to come away from Hoima unbeaten.

💬 Goals look hard to find in this one, and that is where our pick starts. Zambia score less than a goal a game. They have won just 1 of their last 13 games, with 3 ties and 9 losses. At home they have been even blunter, with one goal across their last seven home games. Togo also score less than a goal a game, and they let in just over a goal a game. They have not won any of their last eight away games, and 4 of those eight were ties. Expect Zambia to hold the ball in Ndola and Togo to sit deep and protect a point. Togo will hunt for something on the break through Dermane Karim. Zambia's trouble is the finish, not the build up, so all that pressure may bring nothing. A 0-0 is the most likely result here, and one moment may be all that separates them. Neither of those endings hurts the quiet game we want. The honest worry is Zambia's recent history. Zambia have had 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 13 games, so busy nights do happen. They also let in three in Algeria four days ago, and a home side chasing a response can leave gaps. We accept that risk, because two attacks this shy rarely fill a scoreboard, and the low scoring read is the one we want.

💬 Mauritania are a hard team to beat by much, and that is the case for backing them here. They have lost by 2 or more goals just twice in their last 10 games. They also let in less than a goal a game, so Benin will have to work for whatever they get. Benin have won 4, tied 4 and lost 5 of their last 13 games. They score less than a goal a game and have won by 2 or more only once in that run. They opened the group with a 1-1 tie away at Burkina Faso. Mauritania arrive in good shape. They beat Central African Republic 3-1 last time out and have had a day more rest, 5 days to 4. Only 2 of their last 10 games had 3 or more goals, so they know how to keep a night quiet. Neither attack does much, and that is the story of this game. A 1-0 Benin win is the single most likely score, and that does beat this pick. We need Mauritania to avoid losing, and their defending makes that a genuine shot. The worry sits at the other end. Mauritania have scored once in four away trips, so they may not find the goal they need. This is a close call rather than a strong one, but we still want Mauritania to hold on.

💬 Saudi Arabia have been the best team in this group by a clear margin. They have won both games without letting a goal in, 1-0 against Kuwait and 3-0 against Oman. Across their last 13 games they have won 6, tied 4 and lost 3. They score just over a goal a game and let in less than one, so they do not need much to win a game. Iraq have won 9 of their last 17 games, but the recent run is poor. They have lost 3 of their last 5. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in more than one, which is the wrong mix here. The two of them together tend to be tight. Their last 7 meetings averaged just over 2 goals and the most recent one finished 0-0. Iraq sit on 4 points, and a single point makes their semi-final place certain, so they will defend deep. That points to a low-scoring game with Saudi Arabia in front. A 1-0 Saudi win is the most likely score, and Saudi simply have to win the game for this to land. The risks are real. Saudi Arabia are already through, Iraq only need a point, and both may rest players. Saudi have also tied 4 of their last 13, so a goalless night is well in range. We still think Saudi have enough to take it.

💬 Oman and Kuwait rarely produce goals against each other, and that is the base of this pick. Their last 6 meetings averaged 2 goals in total, with Oman winning 5 and tying 1. Oman barely score. They manage less than a goal a game and have tied 7 of their last 14, which is half of them. Kuwait are in worse shape. They have won 1, tied 2 and lost 8 of their last 11, and they also score less than a goal a game. Their 2 goals against Iraq were their first multi-goal game since November 2025. The setting helps us too. Kuwait are already out on 0 points, and Oman sit third on 1 point, 3 points behind Iraq with one game left. Oman need a big win plus help elsewhere, so there is little for either side to chase. Neither team is at its own ground, and both have had only 3 days rest. That usually makes for a flat, slow night. A 1-0 Oman win is the most likely finish, and a night like that is what we are backing. The catch is Kuwait. Their games have averaged almost 3 goals and they let in almost 2 a game, so one loose spell could open this up. Heavy rotation is likely as well, with so little left to play for. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Spain are in outstanding form, and they win by clear margins. They have won 13 and tied 2 of their last 15 games, with 5 straight wins behind them. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of those 15. Spain score more than 2 goals a game and barely let anything in. Croatia have won 11 of their last 16, but the football behind that is not as strong as the results. They have been letting in fewer goals than their play deserves, and scoring more than their chances deserve too. Runs like that cool, and Spain are the worst side to face when they do. Croatia are also missing Martin Erlic, Josip Juranovic and Martin Baturina. Luka Modric and his midfield will spend long spells chasing Rodri and Fabian Ruiz. These two do not play quiet games either. The last 7 meetings averaged almost 4 goals in total, with a 5-3 and a 6-0 among them. Spain should control the ball, lead before the hour, and add a second once Croatia have to come out. A 2-0 Spain win is the most likely score, and this wants Spain to push past that. The catch is Croatia's stubbornness. They have lost by 2 or more only twice in their last 16 games, and Spain let in 2 goals against England three days ago. We still back Spain to win this well.

💬 Albania win games without scoring many, and that is why the goals should stay down here. They have not had a game with 4 or more goals in any of their last 15. Only 3 of those 15 had 3 or more. Albania score less than a goal a game and let in less than a goal a game, so their nights are usually quiet. Even when they win well, they do it with control rather than a flood of goals. San Marino will not add much to the total either. They score less than a goal a game and have not scored in 7 of their last 10. They have lost 10 of their last 12, including their last 5 in a row. So everything has to come from Albania, and Albania sit second in their group behind Finland on goal difference. That gives them a reason to keep pushing. The likely shape is an early goal, a quiet middle hour, and a third near the end. A 0-3 Albania win is the most likely score, and that total still suits us. The warning is real. Finland won 7-0 at this same ground three days ago, and San Marino let in just over 4 goals a game. San Marino's games have averaged almost 5 goals in total. This is closer than the gap in class suggests, but we still want the lower-scoring night.

💬 Both of these sides play in quiet games, and that is the case for fewer goals here. Only 5 of Slovakia's last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Just 4 of Kazakhstan's last 13 did. Slovakia are strong at home with 6 wins, 2 ties and 1 loss, and they let in less than a goal a game there. They score just over a goal a game overall, so they win tight rather than wide. Kazakhstan bring very little going forward. They score less than a goal a game on the road, and forward Dastan Satpayev is out with a hamstring problem. Islam Chesnokov and Alibek Kassym are missing as well. The last 2 meetings between these two averaged 2 goals in total. Expect Kazakhstan to sit deep for long spells and Slovakia to need patience to find the opening. A second goal should only arrive once the visitors have to push out. A 2-0 Slovakia win is the most likely finish, and that is the kind of night we want. There are real worries though. Kazakhstan have not lost in their last 5 games, and Slovakia have won by 2 or more in 5 of their last 15. Kazakhstan also let in more than a goal a game, so an early Slovakia goal could stretch this out. We still lean to the low-scoring game.

💬 Strip out one freak result and neither of these teams can score. Bulgaria's goals average is carried by a 10-2 win over the Solomon Islands. In the other 15 games of that run they managed 10 goals in total. Bulgaria have won 5, tied 2 and lost 9 of their last 16. At their own ground they have scored less than a goal a game across eight games. They lost 1-2 to Luxembourg on matchday one and sit bottom of the group on zero points. Estonia are no better going forward. They score less than a goal a game on the road and have tied 3 of their 10 away games. They held Iceland to a 1-1 tie on matchday one, which is how they like a night to go. These sides have never met, so there is no history pulling either way. Both had 3 days rest. A nervy, scrappy game in Plovdiv is the likeliest shape, with neither team confident enough to open up. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score. We want this one to stay tight, and the fewer goals the better. The clear worry is Bulgaria at the back. They let in just over 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Bulgaria also need points, so they may gamble late. It is close, but we still want the quiet game.

💬 Iceland have the firepower in this game and Luxembourg do not. Iceland score almost 2 goals a game, more than double what Luxembourg manage. That gap decides plenty of games at this level. Luxembourg have won 3, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 14. They score less than a goal a game and have won only once in their last seven at their own ground. Their three-game winning run is real, but it came against Bulgaria and Malta twice. Iceland are the side with the threat. Even on the road they score just over a goal a game. They have won only 2 of their last 6 away games, and that is the honest weak spot in this pick. Luxembourg have to score to stay in this, and they have barely scored all run. Both teams had 3 days rest, so tiredness favours neither side. A 1-1 tie is the most likely single score, and this pick needs more than that. Iceland have to win the game, and their extra goal threat is the reason to back them. There is one real caveat. Luxembourg are unbeaten in the two meetings between these sides and they top the group on merit. Iceland can be got at as well, letting in just over 2 goals a game. We are still with Iceland.

💬 Scotland do not get beaten heavily, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games. Across that run they have won 8 and tied 2, and they let in just over a goal a game. Switzerland are the better team, but they are not the same side on the road. They have won only 2 of their 6 away games and score just over a goal a game in them. They are also without Granit Xhaka, Breel Embolo and Denis Zakaria this window. Switzerland have been scoring more than their chances deserve lately, and runs like that tend to cool. The one recent meeting between these two ended in a tie. Both teams have had only 3 days rest, so expect a cagey night with few clear chances. A 1-0 Switzerland win is the most likely single score, and that is not enough for us. This needs Scotland to avoid defeat, and a tight game in Glasgow makes that a real chance. The worry is at the other end. Scotland have scored once in their last four games and are without Scott McTominay, Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland. Switzerland have also won by 2 or more in 7 of their last 13, so the safety net is thinner than it looks. We still want Scotland to stay in this one.

💬 Slovenia hardly ever win a game by much, and that is why we are happy to take North Macedonia here. Slovenia have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14 games. They have tied 7 of those 14, and their last 5 brought 4 ties. They score less than a goal a game and have just lost Benjamin Sesko to a shin injury, which takes away their one real finisher. North Macedonia are better than their recent run looks. They have won 8 of their last 15 and score more than a goal a game. Their last 3 losses came against Switzerland, Denmark and Wales, which is a hard set of games in anyone's book. The head to head backs them up too. Slovenia have not beaten them in the last 3 meetings, and 2 of those finished 1-1. Slovenia's games average under 2 goals in total, so there is little room here for a big home win. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that lands this pick. Now the honest part. North Macedonia sit bottom of their group after a 3-0 home loss to Switzerland and could make big changes. They are also without Nikola Serafimov and Darko Churlinov. Slovenia have three defenders out as well, so a scrappy game could break either way. We still want North Macedonia to stay within reach.

💬 Cameroon travel well and Congo barely score, and that is the simple case here. Cameroon have won 5, tied 2 and lost 2 of their away games, letting in less than a goal a game on the road. They have won 10 of their last 18 overall and beat Comoros 3-1 in their opening group game. Bryan Mbeumo started that one, and the squad is reported fully fit. Congo are in a bad way. They have won 1 of their last 16 games, score less than a goal a game, and let in almost 2 a game. They lost 1-0 at Namibia on matchday one and have not won by 2 or more goals once in those 16 games. Their last 5 games brought 4 losses and a tie. Cameroon are not a free-scoring side either. They score just over a goal a game, so this should be a controlled win rather than a big one. Expect one Cameroon goal, most likely after the break once Congo tire. A 1-0 Cameroon win is the most likely score, and we want a second Cameroon goal on top of it. Two things could stop that. Congo are much tougher in Brazzaville, with 1 win and 3 ties from 6 there. The last 5 meetings between these two produced only 5 goals in total, and Congo lost just 2 of them. This is a careful pick, but Cameroon should have enough.

💬 Niger do not score enough to make this a busy game, and that is the heart of this pick. Their games have averaged under 2 goals in total, and only 3 of their last 9 had 3 or more. Niger score less than a goal a game, and away from home they barely score at all. They have won 4 of their last 5 games, but they did it by defending rather than scoring. Gabon are not flowing either. They have not won any of their last 5 games and were beaten 2-0 in Morocco on matchday one. Gabon have let in a goal a game across their six home games, but they have won only two of them. They are also without Aaron Appindangoye, hurt in training, with Chris Obiang set to replace him. Niger report no injuries or bans. Both sides have had 4 days rest, so expect a slow, careful game with few clear chances. A 1-0 Gabon win is the most likely finish, and that keeps the total right where we want it. The warning is the one meeting between these two. It had seven goals in it, and Niger won it. Gabon's games have also averaged almost 3 goals, and 9 of their last 16 had 3 or more. We still want the quiet night.

💬 Somalia barely score, so almost everything in this game has to come from one side. They have scored once in their last 10 games and score less than a goal a game. Their run reads no wins, 5 ties and 12 losses in 17, and it is built on deep defending and goalless ties. Their games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. Ivory Coast are far the better team and beat Ghana 2-0 last time out. They score 2 goals a game and let in less than a goal a game. What matters is how they win: 2-0 over Ghana, 3-0 over Burkina Faso, 2-0 in Curacao, 1-0 against Ecuador and 1-0 against Mozambique. In their last 14 games they won by more than three goals only once. They have also been making fewer chances than their goal record suggests. This one is at the Accra Sports Stadium, so neither team is at home. Ivory Coast are expected to name much the same team that won in Abidjan, and they have no reason to chase a big score. A 2-0 Ivory Coast win is the most likely finish, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The worry is who Somalia have been playing. Their record came against weaker sides, so their defending may not hold up as well here. If the block cracks early, Ivory Coast could keep adding goals late on. We still want the lower-scoring game.