Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia — Tips & Analysis

FYR Macedonia +1: Slovenia hardly ever win a game by much, and that is why we are happy to take North Macedonia here. Slovenia have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14 games. They have tied 7 of those 14, and their last 5 brought 4 ties. They score less than a goal a game and have just lost Benjamin Sesko to a shin injury, which takes away their one real finisher. North Macedonia are better than their recent run looks. They have won 8 of their last 15 and score more than a goal a game. Their last 3 losses came against Switzerland, Denmark and Wales, which is a hard set of games in anyone's book. The head to head backs them up too. Slovenia have not beaten them in the last 3 meetings, and 2 of those finished 1-1. Slovenia's games average under 2 goals in total, so there is little room here for a big home win. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that lands this pick. Now the honest part. North Macedonia sit bottom of their group after a 3-0 home loss to Switzerland and could make big changes. They are also without Nikola Serafimov and Darko Churlinov. Slovenia have three defenders out as well, so a scrappy game could break either way. We still want North Macedonia to stay within reach.