Burundi vs Algeria — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Algeria are the better team here, but they do not win these games by wide margins, and that is what this pick rests on. Algeria have won 8 of their last 14 games, yet they won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of them. Burundi make life hard in Bujumbura. They have let in under a goal a game in their 7 home games and won 2 of those. They also lost only 1-0 in Togo on matchday one, and they will sit deep again. The pitch helps them too. The Intwari Stadium surface is artificial, and that flattens the gap between a strong technical side and a stubborn home team. Algeria have also been scoring more than the chances they create, and that kind of finishing usually cools off. Only 4 of Burundi's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so a quiet night is normal for them. A 0-1 Algeria win looks the most likely result, one goal from a set piece or a moment of quality and then a game managed out. The risk is real. Algeria's games have almost 3 goals in total on average, and they beat Burundi 4-0 in January 2024. The quality is there to add late goals once the door opens. We still want the low-scoring game.