South Sudan vs Egypt — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Egypt do not score enough to blow this open, and that is the heart of this pick. They have tied 7 of their last 15 games and score just over a goal a game. They also opened this group with a 0-0 tie against Angola. Mohamed Salah is not travelling either. Egypt have rested him because the artificial turf in Juba carries a higher injury risk than grass, and he is their one game changer. Egypt's games have just over 2 goals in total on average, and they won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15. South Sudan will make this awkward. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 4 of their last 20, so they stay in games even when they are second best. Expect them to pack the middle of the pitch on a surface they know well. A 0-1 Egypt win looks the most likely result, a single goal and then a game managed out. The risk sits with the home defending. South Sudan let in more than 2 goals a game across their 9 home games, and 10 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals. Egypt only need a couple of early chances to change the shape of this. We still want the low-scoring game.