Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: This game never produces goals, and that is why this pick is on. The last four meetings brought just five goals between them, and none of the four had more than 2 goals in it. Guinea-Bissau are built to keep things tight at home. They score under a goal a game, and at their own ground they score one and let in one a game across 8 games. They won the group opener 2-0 in Tanzania, so they play with belief rather than fear. Nigeria are unbeaten in 12 games, with 9 wins and 3 ties, and they have let in just two goals in their four away games. They also do not win these games by wide margins. Seven of those 12 games were tied or won by a single goal. Victor Osimhen is ruled out with a muscle injury and Taiwo Awoniyi was called up in his place. Only 6 of Guinea-Bissau's last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. A 1-0 Nigeria win looks the most likely result, and that sits well inside this pick. The honest risk is Nigeria's scoring. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. If Guinea-Bissau chase late, Nigeria can break and add a second. We still want the tight game.