Saudi Arabia vs Iraq — Tips & Analysis

Saudi Arabia -0.5: Saudi Arabia have been the best team in this group by a clear margin. They have won both games without letting a goal in, 1-0 against Kuwait and 3-0 against Oman. Across their last 13 games they have won 6, tied 4 and lost 3. They score just over a goal a game and let in less than one, so they do not need much to win a game. Iraq have won 9 of their last 17 games, but the recent run is poor. They have lost 3 of their last 5. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in more than one, which is the wrong mix here. The two of them together tend to be tight. Their last 7 meetings averaged just over 2 goals and the most recent one finished 0-0. Iraq sit on 4 points, and a single point makes their semi-final place certain, so they will defend deep. That points to a low-scoring game with Saudi Arabia in front. A 1-0 Saudi win is the most likely score, and Saudi simply have to win the game for this to land. The risks are real. Saudi Arabia are already through, Iraq only need a point, and both may rest players. Saudi have also tied 4 of their last 13, so a goalless night is well in range. We still think Saudi have enough to take it.