Tips — Monday, 28 September 2026

💬 This is a game between two sides who struggle to score, and one of them barely scores at all. Singapore are the better organised team, but they are not free scoring. They get just over a goal a game, and their competitive games average just over 2 goals in total. They also let in under a goal a game, which is the real strength of this side. Bangladesh are in worse shape. They have won 1 of their last 10 games and barely score on their travels, taking two ties and two defeats from four away trips. They let in more than a goal a game too. Both teams lost their openers, Singapore 2-0 to Indonesia and Bangladesh 3-0 to Malaysia. So both need a result, and neither will want to be caught out early. The history matches that script. Singapore won the last two meetings 1-0 and 2-1, and those two games averaged 2 goals in total. Three days of rest for both sides also points to a slower, more careful game. A 1-0 Singapore win is the likeliest finish, and that leaves us in good shape. The risk is Bangladesh falling apart again. They let in three against Malaysia and four against Hong Kong in recent games, and their own matches average more than 2 goals in total. If Singapore score early and Bangladesh have to chase it, the total can climb. We are still backing the quieter game.

💬 Ukraine arrive in Tbilisi missing most of their attacking first choices. Artem Dovbyk is out with a thigh problem, and Ruslan Malinovskyi and Vitaliy Mykolenko are both hurt. Oleksandr Nazarenko is suspended after a late second yellow card against Hungary. Ukraine also come off a 1-0 win in Budapest, so they know how to keep a game small. Georgia are in a strange place. They have lost five competitive games in a row, the last of them to a 99th-minute Northern Ireland winner, and they changed coach days later. Ramaz Svanadze has had three days to get a new plan across, so expect something simple and careful rather than open football. There is very little between these two teams, and the history says the same. Their last two meetings finished 1-1 and 0-1, and both were low scoring. Three days of rest for both squads also points to a slower, tighter night. A 1-1 tie is the likeliest finish here, and that keeps us on the right side. Be careful, though. Georgia's games average almost 3 goals in total and Ukraine's just over 3, so the quiet night is not a given. Ukraine's away games include a 5-3 in Iceland and a 0-4 in France. A brand-new coach with three days of work can also leave a mess at the back. Even so, both attacks are short of goals, and a tense night in Tbilisi keeps us on the low-scoring game.

💬 Armenia have the better recent record between these two, and that counts in a game neither side looks like winning well. They have won 2 and tied 1 of the last 4 meetings with Montenegro. They also beat Latvia 2-0 in Yerevan on matchday one and sit top of the group. Armenia barely score, though. They get under a goal a game at home, and their coach has said that avoiding defeat here matters almost as much as winning. Expect a deep, narrow Armenia side happy to make this awkward. Montenegro have their own problems. They score a goal a game, and they are far worse on the road. They have won just one of their last six away games and barely scored in them. They are also without Sead Haksabanovic for the window, and two more players picked up knocks in the build-up. Put that together and a 1-1 tie is the likeliest finish, which does the job for us. Armenia are the side we want, and what we mainly need is for them to avoid defeat. The risk is their injury list. Armenia are missing more than eight players, including centre-backs Sergey Muradyan and Styopa Mkrtchyan, and this defence already lets in more than 2 goals a game. That average is dragged up by heavy losses to Portugal and Georgia, teams well above this level, but a patched-up back line is still a real worry. We are with Armenia to hold on.

💬 Goals have to come from somewhere, and the hosts have not been providing them. The Central African Republic have scored one goal in total across their last seven home games. They have won 2 of their last 13 and let in more than 2 goals a game, so they sit deep and hope to stay in it. They are also hosts in name only. This game is in Casablanca because their own stadium is not licensed, so there is no crowd behind them. They also arrive bottom of the group after a 3-1 defeat in Mauritania. Burkina Faso are the better team by a distance, but they win quietly. Their away games are narrow and controlled. They score just over a goal a game on the road and let in a goal a game doing it. They were also held to a 1-1 tie at home by Benin on matchday one. That is how they play: take the lead, manage the game, add a second if it comes. A 0-2 Burkina Faso win is the likeliest finish here, and that suits our side of it. The clear risk is what happened last time out. Burkina Faso beat this same team 4-2 just over a year ago, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 13 games. If the hosts crack early, this can turn into a big win with plenty of goals. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Neither team is at home here. The game is at Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaounde, with Equatorial Guinea moved out of Malabo, so nobody gets a crowd behind them. On neutral ground the better team usually shows, and that is Sierra Leone. They are hard to beat when they travel. They have tied five of their last nine games away from home and lost only three of them. Across their last 18 games they have been beaten by 2 or more goals just twice, so heavy defeats are not their habit. Equatorial Guinea are going the other way. They barely score, at under a goal a game, and they have lost their last four. They also lost their opener 2-0 in Kinshasa, which is a fair picture of where they are. Both sides need points after losing on matchday one, and neither carries much threat going forward. That usually gives you a tight game decided by one moment. A 1-1 tie looks the likeliest finish, and that is enough for our side of it. The honest worry is the one time these two have met. Equatorial Guinea won it 1-0 at the 2022 Africa Cup of Nations, so they know they can live with this opponent. Sierra Leone also let in three goals against Zimbabwe in their opener, so this back line can be got at. We are still happy to be with Sierra Leone.

💬 Congo DR are the better team, and how little they give up is the main reason we are on them. They have let in under a goal a game across their last 16, with clean sheets in wins over Botswana, Benin and Jamaica. They have also not lost by 2 or more goals in any of those 16 games. Their recent level is well above this group. They tied 1-1 with Portugal and beat Uzbekistan 3-1 at the 2026 World Cup. They then won 2-0 against Equatorial Guinea on matchday 1. Zimbabwe are limited going forward. They score under a goal a game and have won 2 of their last 11. They let in more than a goal a game as well, so expect them to sit deep and defend for long spells. That shape usually means a tight, controlled game rather than an open one. Only 5 of Congo DR's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and 4 of Zimbabwe's last 11 did. Both sides come in on four days of rest. A 0-1 Congo DR win is the likeliest finish, and that is the result we want. The risk is real. Zimbabwe came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in Sierra Leone with two Marshall Munetsi goals, so they do not fold. Congo DR have also been scoring a bit more than their chances deserve lately. We still trust the better side to find the goal that decides this.

💬 The story of this game is simple. Leganes have not scored against Castellón in their last four meetings, and those four games produced just over a goal each. Leganes barely score at all. They get under a goal a game, and their matches finish with almost 2 goals in total. Butarque is where they are at their best, but that strength is defensive. They have won 3 and tied 1 of their last 5 there, letting in under a goal a game. Castellón are the better team and they know it. They top Segunda on 16 points from six games and have won 4 and tied 1 of their last 5. They have also won 5 of their 7 away games, scoring more than a goal a game on the road. That sets the shape here. Leganes sit in, protect their box and try to stay level. Castellón wait patiently for the one clear moment that decides it. A 0-1 away win looks like the likeliest finish, and a game like that stays quiet. The risk is real though. Castellón have been making plenty of chances in recent weeks, and 7 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. If they turn one of those nights in early, this can get away from us. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Both of these squads are missing too much to serve up a goal rush. France have lost Mbappé to a knee problem, and Saliba, Konaté and four more players are out too. Belgium are short as well. De Bruyne has asked for a rest, Doku is hurt and Trossard has a heel problem. Belgium's scoring numbers look huge, but they are built on a 7-0 against Liechtenstein and a 5-1 against New Zealand. Take those out and this is a side making far fewer chances than the scorelines suggest. At home in Brussels they have gone eight games unbeaten, 5 wins and 3 ties, letting in under a goal a game. France are just as tight on the road. They have won 6 of their last 7 away games and let in under a goal a game doing it. The history says the same. France have won all five recent meetings, and those games averaged just over 2 goals in total. Both teams are on three days' rest after away wins, so expect changes and a slower tempo. A 2-1 to Belgium is the likeliest finish, and that keeps us on the right side. The worry is that both sides do have goals in them. Belgium have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 16 games. We still want the quieter night here.

💬 Neither of these teams can afford a cagey night. Both lost their openers and both sit in the bottom two of their group, so they have to come out and win this one. That is how games get stretched and open. Italy bring the goals with them. Their games average more than 3 goals in total, and 12 of their last 18 had 3 or more. They travel well too, with 5 wins from 8 on the road and just over 2 goals a game scored away. Türkiye are not short of chances either. They lost 1-0 to France in their opener and have been creating plenty without much reward. The problem is at the back, and that helps our case. Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and Orkun Kökçü are all out, and first choice goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır is suspended after his red card. A backup keeper on debut in a must win game is the sort of thing that leaks a goal. Add the players Italy are missing and this looks like a 1-2 away win. That is three goals, and it is exactly what we want. The honest worry is Türkiye's own scoring. They get under 2 goals a game at home, and the last three meetings between these two averaged just under 3 goals. This can stay tight. We are still backing goals here.

💬 Windsor Park is the whole case here. Northern Ireland have won 4 of their last 5 at home and let in only one goal across those five games. That is a hard night out for any visiting side, and Hungary are not arriving in good shape. They have won just 3 of their last 14 games and let in more than a goal a game. They also lost 1-0 at home to Ukraine in their opener. Now they come to Belfast without Barnabás Varga to lead the line, and Damir Redžić has left the squad with an ankle injury. That hurts, because Hungary barely score as it is, at about a goal a game. Northern Ireland know exactly how to play this. They sit deep, win the loose balls and look for a set piece or a late break, which is how they took the points in Georgia. Their games are low scoring, with 9 of their last 13 finishing on 2 goals or fewer. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest finish, and that is enough for us. The doubts are fair. Northern Ireland lose centre back Dan Ballard to a hamstring injury, so a changed back line has to hold up. Hungary also won the only recent meeting between these two. But the home record is too strong to ignore, and we are with Northern Ireland.

💬 Sweden are falling apart at the wrong time. Alexander Isak and Hjalmar Ekdal are out for the rest of this window, and Emil Holm has left the squad. Svanberg, Taha Ali and Nilsson all pulled out before the Romania game. That win over Romania flattered them too. They have created very little over their last four games and let in more than a goal a game doing it. Sweden have won just 5 of their last 14, and they have won by 2 or more goals only 3 times in that run. Poland are the steadier side right now. They are unbeaten in four of their last five and kept a clean sheet in the 0-0 with Bosnia. They defend in a proper shape and they will happily take a point from a trip like this. Expect a scrappier, tighter game than the recent 3-2 meetings between these two suggest. Sweden will push at home and probably get a goal, but Poland look organised enough to answer it. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that suits us fine. The catch is that Sweden are a different team at home, with 4 wins from 7 there and more than 2 goals a game scored. Poland also lose Jakub Kamiński to an adductor problem, which unsettles their front line again. Poland are still the side we want.

💬 Romania's games rarely stay quiet. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 14, and their games average just over 3 goals in total. At the Arena Națională they have won 5 of their last 6 and scored almost 3 goals a game. Bosnia are not built to shut that down for 90 minutes. They let in more than a goal a game, and a little more on the road, where they have won 2, tied 5 and lost 2. The history helps as well. Bosnia have scored in all four recent meetings with Romania, including a 3-1 win and a 1-0 win in Bucharest, and those games averaged almost 3 goals. Romania need points badly. They are bottom of the group with nothing from the Sweden trip, so they have to come forward. That is how a game opens up. The oddity is the stadium, because this one is played behind closed doors with nobody in the stands. It takes the noise out of the night, but it does not change the shape of the game. A 2-1 to Romania is the likeliest finish, and that is three goals. Be honest about the risk. Bosnia have made almost nothing in front of goal lately and tied 0-0 in Poland in their opener. If they sit in and Romania grind out a 1-0, this is dead. We still expect goals.

💬 The case here is simple: neither of these teams is making much happen in front of goal. Tunisia are the better side, but this is a rebuilt one. They kept only 14 players from their World Cup squad for this window, and the new-look team opened the group with a 1-1 home tie against Uganda. Tunisia have been creating almost nothing lately. Botswana are even more limited going forward. They score under a goal a game and have won just 2 of their last 15. What they do well is stay in games. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 15, and nine of the fifteen finished within a single goal, including six ties. They also opened this group with a 2-2 in Libya. All of that points to a slow, low-scoring qualifier. Botswana will sit deep and make Tunisia work a long time for one clear chance. The last two meetings averaged under 2 goals in total. The most recent of those was a 3-0 Tunisia win. A 0-1 Tunisia win is the likeliest finish, and a game like that suits us. The worry is Tunisia on the road. They have averaged more than 2 goals a game across their last seven away trips. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 13 games, so an early goal could pull this out of the quiet script. We still want the low-scoring game here.