Ethiopia vs Senegal — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Goals are the story here. Senegal score more than 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Ethiopia are not built to shut that down. They let in more than a goal a game and have lost by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 17. Ethiopia do score in front of their own crowd, and that is the other half of this. They score more than a goal a game across their 8 home games and won 4 of them, so a Senegal clean sheet is far from routine. Senegal also need this badly. Patrick Vieira's side were held 1-1 by Mozambique in his first competitive game and are still chasing a first win under him. That points to a team pushing bodies forward rather than sitting on a narrow lead. Both sides carry busy games with them. Senegal's games have more than 3 goals in total on average, and Ethiopia's have almost 3. A 1-2 Senegal win looks the most likely score, and that gets us there. The honest warning is that Senegal let in just over a goal a game and have the players to control this at 2-0. There is also no history between these two to lean on. We still expect the goals to come.