Uganda vs Libya — Tips & Analysis

Libya +0.5: Libya are hard to beat, and that is the whole case here. They have tied 7 of their last 15 games, including their last four in a row, and they have lost only 4 in that run. Libya score a goal a game and let in a goal a game, so tight games are where they live. Uganda have bigger things on their mind. They are already at the 2027 finals as co-hosts, and Paul Put has brought nine new faces into this squad. The team is being tried out rather than built to win. Uganda have scored exactly one goal and let in at least one in each of their last five games. Those five results read tie, loss, tie, loss, loss. There is no home crowd to lean on either. This game has been moved from Kampala to the new Hoima City Stadium, so neither side gets a lift from the ground. The one previous meeting between these teams finished 0-0, and both squads have had five days since their last game. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. The honest risk is Libya's attack. They did not score in either of their last two away games, with 0-0s at Palestine and Mauritius. A 1-0 Uganda win is very much live. We are still happy to back Libya to come away from Hoima unbeaten.