Lesotho vs Morocco — Tips & Analysis

Under 4: Morocco are much the better team here, but they are not a side that runs up big scores. Their games have just over 2 goals in total on average, and only 5 of their last 15 had 3 or more. They opened this group with a controlled 2-0 win over Gabon, and that is their pattern. Take the lead, keep the clean sheet, save the legs. Morocco have won 10 of their last 15 and let in under a goal a game. They won by 3 or more goals in just 3 of those 15. Achraf Hakimi is suspended and Nayef Aguerd is unavailable, so the team is lighter than usual. Lesotho will not open this up. They score under a goal a game and lost 2-1 to Niger on matchday one, so they will sit deep and hand over the ball. There is no home crowd either. The game has been moved to Bloemfontein in South Africa because Lesotho's own grounds do not meet the standards. Neither side gets a lift from the stands. A 0-2 Morocco win looks the most likely result, and a quiet afternoon fits both teams. The risk is the obvious one. Morocco beat Lesotho 7-0 in November 2024, and their last two meetings averaged 4 goals in total. One early goal could turn this into a big win. We still want the tighter game.