Zambia vs Togo — Tips & Analysis

Under 2: Goals look hard to find in this one, and that is where our pick starts. Zambia score less than a goal a game. They have won just 1 of their last 13 games, with 3 ties and 9 losses. At home they have been even blunter, with one goal across their last seven home games. Togo also score less than a goal a game, and they let in just over a goal a game. They have not won any of their last eight away games, and 4 of those eight were ties. Expect Zambia to hold the ball in Ndola and Togo to sit deep and protect a point. Togo will hunt for something on the break through Dermane Karim. Zambia's trouble is the finish, not the build up, so all that pressure may bring nothing. A 0-0 is the most likely result here, and one moment may be all that separates them. Neither of those endings hurts the quiet game we want. The honest worry is Zambia's recent history. Zambia have had 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 13 games, so busy nights do happen. They also let in three in Algeria four days ago, and a home side chasing a response can leave gaps. We accept that risk, because two attacks this shy rarely fill a scoreboard, and the low scoring read is the one we want.