San Marino vs Albania — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Albania win games without scoring many, and that is why the goals should stay down here. They have not had a game with 4 or more goals in any of their last 15. Only 3 of those 15 had 3 or more. Albania score less than a goal a game and let in less than a goal a game, so their nights are usually quiet. Even when they win well, they do it with control rather than a flood of goals. San Marino will not add much to the total either. They score less than a goal a game and have not scored in 7 of their last 10. They have lost 10 of their last 12, including their last 5 in a row. So everything has to come from Albania, and Albania sit second in their group behind Finland on goal difference. That gives them a reason to keep pushing. The likely shape is an early goal, a quiet middle hour, and a third near the end. A 0-3 Albania win is the most likely score, and that total still suits us. The warning is real. Finland won 7-0 at this same ground three days ago, and San Marino let in just over 4 goals a game. San Marino's games have averaged almost 5 goals in total. This is closer than the gap in class suggests, but we still want the lower-scoring night.