Finland vs Belarus — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: Belarus barely score, and that is the heart of this pick. They score under a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 12. They have won once in that run, tying 5 and losing 6. Finland are not the free-scoring side their last result suggests. That 7-0 came away at San Marino, the weakest team in Europe, and their home game before it was a 0-1 loss to Malta. Finland have won 2 and lost 5 of their last seven home games, and they score under a goal a game in Helsinki. Belarus will sit deep and try to keep this small. That mix does not make goals. Only 4 of Belarus's last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them, and the one previous meeting between these teams had 2 goals in it. Finland should win, but slowly rather than in a rush. A 2-0 Finland win looks the most likely result, and that keeps this pick on the right side. The warning is a real one. Belarus have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 12, and those beatings include a 0-6 against Denmark and a 1-5 against Greece. An early Finnish goal could turn this into another long night for them. We still expect a low-scoring game.