Bulgaria vs Estonia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: Strip out one freak result and neither of these teams can score. Bulgaria's goals average is carried by a 10-2 win over the Solomon Islands. In the other 15 games of that run they managed 10 goals in total. Bulgaria have won 5, tied 2 and lost 9 of their last 16. At their own ground they have scored less than a goal a game across eight games. They lost 1-2 to Luxembourg on matchday one and sit bottom of the group on zero points. Estonia are no better going forward. They score less than a goal a game on the road and have tied 3 of their 10 away games. They held Iceland to a 1-1 tie on matchday one, which is how they like a night to go. These sides have never met, so there is no history pulling either way. Both had 3 days rest. A nervy, scrappy game in Plovdiv is the likeliest shape, with neither team confident enough to open up. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score. We want this one to stay tight, and the fewer goals the better. The clear worry is Bulgaria at the back. They let in just over 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Bulgaria also need points, so they may gamble late. It is close, but we still want the quiet game.