Luxembourg vs Iceland — Tips & Analysis

Iceland -0.25: Iceland have the firepower in this game and Luxembourg do not. Iceland score almost 2 goals a game, more than double what Luxembourg manage. That gap decides plenty of games at this level. Luxembourg have won 3, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 14. They score less than a goal a game and have won only once in their last seven at their own ground. Their three-game winning run is real, but it came against Bulgaria and Malta twice. Iceland are the side with the threat. Even on the road they score just over a goal a game. They have won only 2 of their last 6 away games, and that is the honest weak spot in this pick. Luxembourg have to score to stay in this, and they have barely scored all run. Both teams had 3 days rest, so tiredness favours neither side. A 1-1 tie is the most likely single score, and this pick needs more than that. Iceland have to win the game, and their extra goal threat is the reason to back them. There is one real caveat. Luxembourg are unbeaten in the two meetings between these sides and they top the group on merit. Iceland can be got at as well, letting in just over 2 goals a game. We are still with Iceland.