Tips — Saturday, 17 October 2026

💬 Everton are hard to beat right now, and that is the core of this pick. They have tied 6 of their last 13 games and lost only 3, which has carried them up to 5th. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals just once in those 13 games. Chelsea are a different team away from home. At home they score more than 2 goals a game. On the road they have won one of their last five and let in 2 goals a trip. Their 5-1 win last time out came against a bottom three Bournemouth side, and the run before it was poor. Chelsea are also without captain Reece James after knee surgery. Gittens is out for weeks and Emegha picked up a training knock on Thursday. This matchup has been tight for years. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and the last four finished 3-0, 0-2, 0-1 and 0-0. Everton score more than a goal a game and let in just over one, so a 1-1 reads as the most likely score. An even game is the night we are backing. The catch is history. Chelsea have won 9 of the last 20 meetings, and their results swing hard, beaten 0-3 at Brentford one game and scoring five the next. If their attack clicks early, Everton will struggle to stay with them. We still back Everton to hold on here.

💬 Middlesbrough are the better side here, but they almost never win big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 17 games. Six of their wins in that run came by a single goal, and five games finished level. Boro are unbeaten in their last seven at the Riverside, with five wins and two ties. They score almost 2 goals a game there and let in a goal a game. Cardiff are no soft touch going forward. They score more than 2 goals a game across their last 16, and they put five past Watford last week. Cardiff have also won 7 of the last 20 meetings with Boro. Those games have been quiet, under 3 goals in total on average, so one mistake usually decides them. A 2-1 Middlesbrough win is the most likely score, and a narrow Boro win keeps us on the right side of this. The worry is Cardiff's road form. They have won one of seven away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels. Bielik is suspended, Chambers is out and Salech is doubtful, so the attack that beat Watford may not start. We still want Cardiff with the head start, because Boro grind out narrow wins rather than pull clear of teams.

💬 Millwall should have the better of this game, but they are badly short of bodies. Seven of their players are ruled out, among them Coburn, Ivanovic, Luongo and Jensen. Millwall have won two of their seven games at The Den. They score more than a goal a game at home and let in about the same. They have also won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 14. Lincoln are a much better team on the road than at home. They have won 6 of their 9 away games and let in just over a goal a game on the road. Lincoln are short too. Hamer and McGrandles are both suspended after red cards, and Darikwa and Melia are injured. Both teams will field patched up sides, and neither has been scoring much. Lincoln have managed about a goal a game lately. That points to a cagey game decided by a set piece or a mistake. A 1-0 Millwall win is the most likely score, so this pick needs Lincoln to keep it close, and ideally to take something from the game. The real danger is a collapse. Lincoln lost 0-6 and 0-3 in their last two league games, and they have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 14. We still back Lincoln to stay within range of a weakened Millwall.

💬 Charlton are hard to beat, and Watford are in a bad place. Watford have lost 11 of their last 16 games and sit 22nd in the table. They score less than a goal a game and let in more than 2. Watford have also not won by 2 or more goals once in their last 16. Charlton have tied four of their last five, with 0-0 games against Portsmouth and QPR among them. They have lost only 4 of their last 14, and they score more than a goal a game. The last two meetings between these two finished 1-1 and 0-1. Those two recent meetings were decided by a goal at most. The longer record between these two has produced more goals. Watford create very little at Vicarage Road, under a goal a game, and they have lost four of their last five. Charlton should have more of the ball without turning it into much. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and a level game leaves us well placed. The catch is at the other end. Charlton let in more than 2 goals a game in their away games, and Watford did beat Preston at home in this run. Chalobah and Godden are both out with muscle problems, and Charlton have scored once or fewer in four of their last five. We still want Charlton with the small head start against a home side this fragile.

💬 Almeria are top of the league and Real Sociedad II are falling apart. Almeria lead Segunda with 21 points from nine games, and they have won each of their last five. They let in less than a goal a game and keep things tidy at the back. Their last two away wins were 1-0 at Mallorca and 2-0 at Cordoba, both without letting in a goal. Real Sociedad II have not won a home game yet. They have no wins, three ties and three losses at Zubieta, where they score a goal a game and let in more. They have lost their last four league games and sit 19th, inside the relegation places. Almeria have won three of the last four meetings between these two. This is a young home team against the steadiest side in the league, and the visitors look the stronger team all over the pitch. A 0-1 Almeria win is the most likely score, and a narrow away win is all we need. Almeria are not a free scoring away team though. They score less than a goal a game on the road and have won only two of their seven away trips. Real Sociedad II have tied three of their six home games, so a level game is a real risk. We still side with the league leaders, because they defend well enough to win these games by a single goal.

💬 Atletico Madrid are flying, and their games have not been quiet. Ten of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. They have won five in a row, beating Manchester United 2-0 and Real Madrid 2-1 along the way. Atletico score almost 2 goals a game, and they have been making plenty of chances lately. Espanyol will get looks of their own. They have scored in each of their last eight games, and they score more than a goal a game. Espanyol are also without their first choice goalkeeper Marko Dmitrovic, with Kike Garcia, Jofre and Gorosabel out as well. A patched up back line against this Atletico front line should leak something. Atletico have been loose on their own travels. They let in more than a goal a game away from home and have lost four of their nine away games. Put that together and a 1-2 Atletico win looks the most likely score. Three goals is enough for us. The doubt is the shape of Espanyol's home games. They are usually tight, with about a goal at each end, and the last 20 meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals. Atletico played on Tuesday as well and may rest players here. We still expect enough goals, because both of these teams are finding the net every week.

💬 Venezia's games have been full of goals. Their six Serie A games have produced 21 goals between them. Venezia are bottom with no points, and they have lost their last five. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than that. Eight of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and they have been making chances even in the heavy defeats. Napoli arrive in a mess of their own. They lost 1-3 at Villarreal on Tuesday, and several changes are expected here. Neres and Buongiorno are out, and Anguissa is doubtful. Napoli still score more than a goal a game, and 7 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. Davide Nicola takes over Venezia for this game. His team need points badly and cannot sit back for 90 minutes. That points to a 1-2 Napoli win, and three goals gets us home. The warning is the history between these two. Venezia did not score in any of their last four games against Napoli, which finished 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 0-2. Those four games averaged just over a goal each. A new manager's first game can also bring a tighter, more careful shape. We still want the goals, because this Venezia side leaks them and Napoli carry too much quality to stay quiet.

💬 Dortmund have planned for this game. They left Schlotterbeck and Guirassy out of the trip to Bodø/Glimt so both would be fresh here, and both are expected to start. Union are in no shape to meet a team arriving like that. They sit 16th with a -12 goal difference and were beaten 0-7 at Bayern and 0-4 at Leverkusen inside their last five games. Union's home form is the one thing in their favour. At their own ground they have won two, tied two and lost one, letting in more than a goal a game. On the road they have let in more than 3 goals a game, so this is the tighter version of them. Dortmund travel well. They have won five of their last eight away games and let in a goal a game on those trips. They have not lost by 2 or more in their last 15. The history is one sided too. Dortmund have won 11 of the last 16 meetings, with 0-3, 0-3 and 0-6 among the recent scores. A 1-2 Dortmund win is the most likely score, so we want them to push on and add a third. The risk is rotation. Dortmund played in Norway three days ago, Can, Konstantelias and Lerma are out, and the lineup is hard to call. Union's own ground is where nearly all their points have come from. We still back Dortmund to be too good here.

💬 Stuttgart are the stronger team here, and Hamburg's recent results do not stand up. Hamburg have won their last two, 3-2 at Hoffenheim and 2-1 against Köln, but they rode their luck in both. The longer picture is ugly. Hamburg carry a -10 goal difference from five league games, including 0-5 at home to Mainz and 0-5 at RB Leipzig. They let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 14 and lost by 2 or more in 5 of them. Hamburg are also missing Moffi, Daka, Remberg and Vuskovic from an attack that has scored five league goals in five games. Stuttgart score more than 2 goals a game and have won 6 of their last 12. They won by 2 or more in 6 of those 12, so they do pull clear of teams. Stuttgart have owned this matchup too, winning 13 of the last 20 meetings, and the last league game between them finished 0-4. A 1-2 Stuttgart win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The catch is the schedule. Stuttgart played a Champions League game away in Bratislava in midweek and have three days' rest to Hamburg's seven, so some rotation is likely. Al Dakhil and Diehl are out and more names are in doubt. We still want Stuttgart, because the gap in quality between these two is real.

💬 Werder are the better side and Paderborn have stopped scoring. The visitors have not scored in four of their last five games, managing three goals in that whole run. That is the main reason this pick is on. Werder are no free scoring team themselves. They score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2, so they are not going to bury anyone. What they have done is compete with good sides. They took a point at Dortmund last time out in a 2-2 tie. They have also beaten Leipzig 3-1 and Augsburg 3-2 at their own ground in this run. Werder also come in with eight days' rest. Paderborn are a tougher trip than their home form suggests. They have won three, tied three and lost two of their last eight away games, and they held Mainz to a 0-0. They let in more than a goal a game on the road. This has the shape of a quiet game decided by one goal, and a 1-0 Werder win is the most likely score. That is enough for us. The worry is Werder's team sheet. Six first team players are out, among them Agu, N'Diaye, Lynen and Njinmah, though Pieper and Regeer are back in contention. A patched up home side against stubborn visitors can easily end level. We still want Werder, because Paderborn have to find a goal from somewhere and they are not finding one.

💬 Manchester City win plenty of games, but they rarely win them big. They have won by three or more goals in only five of their last 17 games, and five of their wins came by a single goal. City are still the far better team. They have won 12 of their last 17, they score more than 2 goals a game and they let in just over a goal. At the Etihad they have won seven of nine. The schedule helps us though. City lost 2-4 at home to PSG on 14 October, have three days' rest to Ipswich's seven, and play again in Europe on 20 October. Their manager has already flagged rotation, with resting Haaland under discussion. Ipswich do not fold either. They have been beaten by more than two goals only once in their last 14 games. They have scored at Manchester United and Crystal Palace, and they beat Fulham this season. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, with City in control without being ruthless, and that sits comfortably inside what we need. The worry is the history, because City won the only two meetings between them 6-0 and 4-1. Two games is not much to go on, and City come in tired this time. We still want Ipswich to keep this close.

💬 Birmingham have been the better of these two teams lately, and QPR arrive short handed. The visitors are without five senior players, with Chair and Cirkin among them, and they get one day less rest than the home side. Birmingham have lost only 2 of their last 15 games. At their own ground they have won three, tied four and lost one of their last eight, scoring 2 goals a game. They make more chances than QPR without giving up any more at the other end, and that gap should tell late on. QPR are hard to beat but they do not win much. They have tied 6 of their last 14 games, including four in a row before they put four past Derby. QPR score more than a goal a game and let in about the same. Birmingham's home games have been busy, with five of their last six there producing at least four goals. That suits the side with more quality in the final third. A 2-1 Birmingham win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The caution is real. Birmingham have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 15, so they do not pull clear of anyone. Their last 20 meetings with QPR averaged more than 2 goals, and the last five read 1-0, 1-2, 1-2, 0-0 and 1-0, so these are usually tight. We still want Birmingham, the fresher and fuller of two evenly matched sides.

💬 Sheffield United are falling apart, and that is the main reason we are on the home side. They have lost four of their last five, including 2-3 at Portsmouth on 14 October. They arrive on three days' rest with Choudhury suspended after a red card and Seriki out with a knee problem. Bristol City are the better team right now. Over the last four games they have made far more chances than Sheffield United and given up far fewer. Ashton Gate is a grind though. City have scored five goals in seven home games there, winning three and losing four. Chances will not come often for either side, so one moment should decide this rather than a flurry of goals. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and a single goal is all this pick needs. The risk is real. City score so little at home that 0-0 and 0-1 are both live results, and centre back Dickie is out with a knee injury. Sheffield United have still won 6 of their last 14 games overall, so this is not a bad side, just one in a bad run. We still want Bristol City, because they are the fresher team, they are the one making chances, and they are not the team missing a suspended man.

💬 Derby have not won at home all season, and that is the heart of this pick. They have two ties and five defeats from their seven games at Pride Park, scoring under a goal a game and letting in almost 2. Derby sit 23rd of 24 on six points from ten games with a -10 goal difference. They are also in bits. Seven players are out, including goalkeeper Widell Zetterstrom, Agyemang, Cashin, Clarke, Forsyth, Murkin and Taylor. Derby have had three days' rest after losing 1-4 at QPR. Stoke are ninth on 16 points and have won three of their last five games. They are the stronger side here and should get through a home defence this leaky. A 1-2 away win fits best, with Derby scoring as they usually do before being picked off, and that result lands this pick. The warning is Stoke's own away form. They have won two of their seven games on the road, scoring a goal a game and letting in 2. Their recent results are also running ahead of the chances they make, so part of this good run is borrowed. These two normally split the points as well, with five wins each and four ties in the last 14 meetings. We still want Stoke, because Derby cannot win at Pride Park and are short of far too many bodies.

💬 Norwich do not do quiet games. Their matches average almost 4 goals, and 11 of their last 13 have had 3 or more. They have not tied a single one of those 13 games, winning five and losing eight. Norwich score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than 2. At Carrow Road they score more than 2 a game and still let in more than a goal. Portsmouth are no safer. Their games average 3 goals, and 8 of their last 14 have had 3 or more. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2. They are also down seven players, including Murphy, Ogilvie, Shaughnessy, Umeh and Waddingham, so the back line is patched up. Both teams played on 14 October and have three days' rest, which usually means tired legs and more space late on. Norwich have lost five in a row and need to chase this game, which only adds to the mess. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and a game of that size keeps us on the right side of this one. The honest catch is the history. The last five meetings averaged almost 3 goals and only two of them had 3 or more. Norwich have also been scoring more than their chances deserve lately. We still want goals here.

💬 Southampton have been strong at home, and that is the case for this pick. They have won six of their eight home games, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. Across their last 16 games they have won 9, and 6 of those wins came by 2 or more goals. Bolton are a different side on the road. They let in more than a goal a game away from home, and that includes a 0-4 at Millwall and a 2-3 at Sheffield United. Bolton have won 7 and lost 7 of their last 15, so the good nights come with bad ones. Southampton are without Flynn Downes and Mads Roerslev, though Cameron Bragg is back from a one match ban. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and that is not quite enough here. We want Southampton to win by two clear goals, and their home run says they are good for it. The warning is that Bolton keep scoring wherever they play. They won 3-1 at Wolves on 13 October and scored four in a 4-3 at Norwich. Southampton's last two wins were both 1-0 as well, and three of their 16 results were one goal wins. We still want the home side, because they are the better team and St Mary's has been a hard place to visit.

💬 Swansea barely let anyone score at home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have let in six goals in eight home games, and two of those ended 0-0 against Wrexham and Sheffield United. Swansea have won 9 of their last 15 games and come in off four straight wins. West Ham are the better side and nobody is pretending otherwise. They score more than 2 goals a game and won 6-0 at Lincoln on 14 October. The catch is that they have tied three of their seven away games, so the quality does not always turn into wins on the road. Swansea are short of bodies too. Burgess, Eustaquio and Key are all out and Lissah is banned, so the home side will dig in rather than trade punches. West Ham have had three days since that Lincoln game to Swansea's four. The last 12 meetings between these two averaged more than 2 goals, which fits a slow night. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and Swansea taking a point is what this pick is built on. The risk is plain. West Ham have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16 games. Swansea score more than a goal a game at home, which is not much to lean on if they fall behind. We still want Swansea, because this is a ground where goals are hard to come by.

💬 The Hawthorns has been a very hard place to score, and that is the case for this pick. West Brom have let in four goals in seven home games there. They do not give much back either, scoring just over a goal a game at home and tying three of those seven. Eight of their last 16 games had fewer than 3 goals. Blackburn travel well. They have one loss in seven away games and let in just over a goal a game on the road. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 15, and they have not lost by 2 or more once in that run. The history between these two says the same thing. The last four meetings finished 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 and 0-0, and the last 18 meetings averaged more than 2 goals. Blackburn also arrive with five players out, including Forshaw, Litherland, Miller and Ohashi. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and that lands this pick with room to spare. The honest warning is Blackburn's wider record. Eleven of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, so they are not always this quiet. One early goal would change how both teams play. We still want the low scoring game, because West Brom make very little and this ground keeps producing quiet ones.

💬 Eibar do not do quiet nights, and that is the case for this pick. They have won 10 of their last 15 games and have not tied once in that run. At Ipurua they have won four and lost two, scoring 2 goals a game there. Eibar sit second, and most teams who come to visit get beaten. Mallorca are a different side away from home. They have scored four goals in eight away games, with 0-0s at Girona and Eldense and a 0-2 at Granada. They are hard to beat and let in less than a goal a game overall. They bring almost nothing forward on the road, though, and they are missing Salas, Morlanes and Roca. Expect Mallorca to sit deep and make Eibar work for an opening. A 1-0 Eibar win fits both sides, and a home win of any size lands this pick. The warnings are real. Eibar lost 1-3 at Oviedo last time out and let in more than a goal a game at Ipurua, so they can be got at. Mallorca have also won the last three meetings between these two, though those came in the top flight a few years ago. We still want Eibar, because they win or lose rather than tie, and Mallorca have shown nothing away from home.

💬 Elche keep games close, and that is the case for this pick. They have been beaten by more than one goal only twice in their last 16 games, and they have tied five of them. Elche score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Few of their games run away from them. They have also had six days off since their last game. Villarreal are the better team and should win this. They score almost 2 goals a game and have just beaten Napoli 3-1 in the Champions League. The catch is what that run costs them. Villarreal have had four days since Tuesday night, with another European game to come, and Pepe and Buchanan are both out. They have lost three of their seven home games as well. The last 12 meetings read 6 wins for Villarreal, 4 ties and 2 for Elche, and averaged almost 3 goals, so these are usually tight. A 2-1 Villarreal win is the most likely score. Elche have to stay within a goal, and that is exactly what their record says they do. A clear two goal Villarreal win beats this pick, and they have done that in 5 of their last 16 games. Tired legs and two missing players make that harder. We still want Elche, because they rarely lose by more than a goal.

💬 Villa rarely get beaten by much, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games. They travel well too, with 5 wins and a tie from 8 away games, scoring almost 2 goals a game on the road. Newcastle have not lost at St James' Park yet, 4 wins and 2 ties, and they score more than 2 goals a game there. The flip side is that they have been outplayed even when taking points. Across their last four games Newcastle have made fewer chances than they have given up. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 13. The record between these two says close game. The last 20 meetings split 7 wins for Newcastle, 7 ties and 6 for Villa, and they averaged almost 3 goals. Newcastle are without Elanga, Livramento and Ramsey. Villa are missing Onana and Maatsen. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and a tie is good news for this pick. The warning is Villa's league form. They sit 16th in the Premier League on 5 points from 6 games, and their better overall record leans on cup and European nights. They also have three days' rest after hosting Fenerbahce in the Champions League, so changes are likely. We are still on Villa, because they keep games tight and Newcastle have not been winning big.

💬 Barcelona have been winning games by a distance, and that is the case here. They have won by 2 or more goals in 12 of their last 14 games. They have also scored three or more in each of their last five away trips. Those read 4-1 at Galatasaray, 3-1 at Sevilla, 4-2 at Levante, 5-0 at Valencia and 5-0 at Elche. On the road they score just over 3 goals a game. Across their last 14 they have let in 1 goal a game. Betis will not roll over. They have won all 6 at La Cartuja and let in under a goal a game there, beating Real Madrid 1-0 and Porto 3-2 on the same pitch. They have won 9 of their last 11 games. Betis have 3 days' rest after that Porto night against 4 for Barcelona, and they are without Junior Firpo and Aitor Ruibal. The record between the two is one sided. Barcelona have won 15 of the last 20 meetings and Betis just 2. A 1-3 Barcelona win looks the likely score, and that gets this pick home. Betis should get a goal in front of their own crowd. Barcelona should score enough to win it clearly. The risk is the shape of Betis games. Eight of their 11 have been decided by a single goal, and they have been beaten by 2 or more only once. We are with Barcelona, because away from home they have been winning big, not just winning.

💬 Lens are the better team, but they arrive in poor shape for a trip like this. They are missing three defenders in Gradit, Nawrocki and the suspended Udol, with Chavez and Sima also out. Lens play on four days of rest after a 0-2 home loss to Sporting CP. Troyes have had six days. Lens still win plenty, 9 of their last 16, and they score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they also let in more than a goal a game, so there is a way back here for the hosts. Troyes are a mess right now. They have lost four in a row and did not score in three of them. Those three all finished 0-2, at home to Marseille, then at Angers and at Lille. They do score more than a goal a game across their last 13 though. This game has been a tight one for years. The last 17 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, so blowing one side away is not the pattern. A 1-2 Lens win is the likeliest single score, so our pick needs a little more than that. Troyes have to take something from the night. That is a real ask from a side on this run, and 4 of their last 13 ended in a 2 goal defeat or worse. We still take the head start with Lens this light at the back.

💬 Castellón travel better than almost anyone in this league. They have won five of their seven away games, and none of those trips ended in a tie. They let in under a goal a game and score more than one, which is a strong mix for a side sitting third. Las Palmas are the opposite at the Gran Canaria. They have won one of their last six home games and score a goal a game there. They also have eight players out, including Sergio Ruiz, Sandro Ramírez and Marvin Park, and a new manager taking charge for the first time. That is a lot of change to work through in one week. Castellón have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 14 games, so they are hard to pick off. Their own games stay quiet too, with only 5 of those 14 reaching 3 goals or more. A 0-1 Castellón win is the most likely score here, and that is enough for our pick to land. The caution is that Castellón have wobbled, taking one point from their last two after a 0-1 loss at FC Andorra and a 1-1 tie with Ceuta. A new manager can also lift a struggling home side for one night. We still side with the better road team.

💬 This game has been a slow, careful one for years. Valencia and Athletic have averaged almost 2 goals a game across their last 20 meetings. Athletic are not the side to change that right now. Their last three games finished 0-0 at Rayo, 0-0 with Alaves and 1-1 with Elche. Only 3 of their last 10 games reached 3 goals or more, and they score a goal a game. They also travel to Mestalla without Nico Williams and Sancet. Laporte and Berenguer are short of fitness too, so most of their attacking spark is missing. Valencia sit 19th and have won one of their last seven home games, scoring less than a goal a game there. They need points far more than they need a shootout. They have let in almost 2 goals a game, so they will not throw bodies forward either. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, which is exactly the kind of quiet night we want. Both sides have more to protect than to chase. The risk is Valencia's own habit of messy games, with 6 of their last 13 reaching 3 goals or more. Their defending has been loose enough that one early goal could open the whole thing up. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.