Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 — Tips & Analysis

Werder Bremen -0.5: Werder are the better side and Paderborn have stopped scoring. The visitors have not scored in four of their last five games, managing three goals in that whole run. That is the main reason this pick is on. Werder are no free scoring team themselves. They score more than a goal a game and let in almost 2, so they are not going to bury anyone. What they have done is compete with good sides. They took a point at Dortmund last time out in a 2-2 tie. They have also beaten Leipzig 3-1 and Augsburg 3-2 at their own ground in this run. Werder also come in with eight days' rest. Paderborn are a tougher trip than their home form suggests. They have won three, tied three and lost two of their last eight away games, and they held Mainz to a 0-0. They let in more than a goal a game on the road. This has the shape of a quiet game decided by one goal, and a 1-0 Werder win is the most likely score. That is enough for us. The worry is Werder's team sheet. Six first team players are out, among them Agu, N'Diaye, Lynen and Njinmah, though Pieper and Regeer are back in contention. A patched up home side against stubborn visitors can easily end level. We still want Werder, because Paderborn have to find a goal from somewhere and they are not finding one.