Swansea vs West Ham — Tips & Analysis

Swansea +0.25: Swansea barely let anyone score at home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have let in six goals in eight home games, and two of those ended 0-0 against Wrexham and Sheffield United. Swansea have won 9 of their last 15 games and come in off four straight wins. West Ham are the better side and nobody is pretending otherwise. They score more than 2 goals a game and won 6-0 at Lincoln on 14 October. The catch is that they have tied three of their seven away games, so the quality does not always turn into wins on the road. Swansea are short of bodies too. Burgess, Eustaquio and Key are all out and Lissah is banned, so the home side will dig in rather than trade punches. West Ham have had three days since that Lincoln game to Swansea's four. The last 12 meetings between these two averaged more than 2 goals, which fits a slow night. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and Swansea taking a point is what this pick is built on. The risk is plain. West Ham have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 16 games. Swansea score more than a goal a game at home, which is not much to lean on if they fall behind. We still want Swansea, because this is a ground where goals are hard to come by.