Birmingham vs QPR — Tips & Analysis

Birmingham -0.25: Birmingham have been the better of these two teams lately, and QPR arrive short handed. The visitors are without five senior players, with Chair and Cirkin among them, and they get one day less rest than the home side. Birmingham have lost only 2 of their last 15 games. At their own ground they have won three, tied four and lost one of their last eight, scoring 2 goals a game. They make more chances than QPR without giving up any more at the other end, and that gap should tell late on. QPR are hard to beat but they do not win much. They have tied 6 of their last 14 games, including four in a row before they put four past Derby. QPR score more than a goal a game and let in about the same. Birmingham's home games have been busy, with five of their last six there producing at least four goals. That suits the side with more quality in the final third. A 2-1 Birmingham win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The caution is real. Birmingham have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 15, so they do not pull clear of anyone. Their last 20 meetings with QPR averaged more than 2 goals, and the last five read 1-0, 1-2, 1-2, 0-0 and 1-0, so these are usually tight. We still want Birmingham, the fresher and fuller of two evenly matched sides.