Newcastle vs Aston Villa — Tips & Analysis

Aston Villa +0.25: Villa rarely get beaten by much, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games. They travel well too, with 5 wins and a tie from 8 away games, scoring almost 2 goals a game on the road. Newcastle have not lost at St James' Park yet, 4 wins and 2 ties, and they score more than 2 goals a game there. The flip side is that they have been outplayed even when taking points. Across their last four games Newcastle have made fewer chances than they have given up. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 13. The record between these two says close game. The last 20 meetings split 7 wins for Newcastle, 7 ties and 6 for Villa, and they averaged almost 3 goals. Newcastle are without Elanga, Livramento and Ramsey. Villa are missing Onana and Maatsen. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and a tie is good news for this pick. The warning is Villa's league form. They sit 16th in the Premier League on 5 points from 6 games, and their better overall record leans on cup and European nights. They also have three days' rest after hosting Fenerbahce in the Champions League, so changes are likely. We are still on Villa, because they keep games tight and Newcastle have not been winning big.