Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — Tips & Analysis

VfB Stuttgart -0.5: Stuttgart are the stronger team here, and Hamburg's recent results do not stand up. Hamburg have won their last two, 3-2 at Hoffenheim and 2-1 against Köln, but they rode their luck in both. The longer picture is ugly. Hamburg carry a -10 goal difference from five league games, including 0-5 at home to Mainz and 0-5 at RB Leipzig. They let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 14 and lost by 2 or more in 5 of them. Hamburg are also missing Moffi, Daka, Remberg and Vuskovic from an attack that has scored five league goals in five games. Stuttgart score more than 2 goals a game and have won 6 of their last 12. They won by 2 or more in 6 of those 12, so they do pull clear of teams. Stuttgart have owned this matchup too, winning 13 of the last 20 meetings, and the last league game between them finished 0-4. A 1-2 Stuttgart win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The catch is the schedule. Stuttgart played a Champions League game away in Bratislava in midweek and have three days' rest to Hamburg's seven, so some rotation is likely. Al Dakhil and Diehl are out and more names are in doubt. We still want Stuttgart, because the gap in quality between these two is real.