Southampton vs Bolton — Tips & Analysis

Southampton -1: Southampton have been strong at home, and that is the case for this pick. They have won six of their eight home games, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. Across their last 16 games they have won 9, and 6 of those wins came by 2 or more goals. Bolton are a different side on the road. They let in more than a goal a game away from home, and that includes a 0-4 at Millwall and a 2-3 at Sheffield United. Bolton have won 7 and lost 7 of their last 15, so the good nights come with bad ones. Southampton are without Flynn Downes and Mads Roerslev, though Cameron Bragg is back from a one match ban. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and that is not quite enough here. We want Southampton to win by two clear goals, and their home run says they are good for it. The warning is that Bolton keep scoring wherever they play. They won 3-1 at Wolves on 13 October and scored four in a 4-3 at Norwich. Southampton's last two wins were both 1-0 as well, and three of their 16 results were one goal wins. We still want the home side, because they are the better team and St Mary's has been a hard place to visit.