Tips — Sunday, 18 October 2026

💬 Neither of these teams can score, and that is the simple case here. Udinese score a goal a game at home and Lecce score less than a goal a game on the road. Put those two together and goals are hard to come by. Udinese have lost four league games in a row and sit 15th with four points from six. Even so, they have the better defensive record in this match, letting in less than a goal a game at home. They are also without Zaniolo, Bayo, Gueye and Abankwah, so their attack is nowhere near full strength. Lecce are no better off. They have six points from six and let in more than a goal a game. They also lost 0-3 at Milan and 0-4 at home to Roma in their recent run. Ilic is out and Stulic is a doubt, which thins them further. The history fits too. Only a third of the last 15 meetings had 3 or more goals, and those games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. A grinding 1-0 to Udinese looks the most likely afternoon, decided by one scrappy goal. The one worry is Udinese's defending. They have been opened up badly across their last four games, giving up far more chances than usual. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Bielefeld have not lost in their last six at home, and that is what this pick leans on. They are unbeaten across those six, scoring more than 2 goals a game in them. They have also lost only one of the last 11 games against Osnabruck. Bielefeld do leave the door open though. They let in just over a goal a game at home, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. This is a side that scores and then lets the game come back at them. Osnabruck are not easy company. They have won three of their five away games and score more than 2 goals a game on the road. That is far better than they manage at their own ground. Their coach says he has a full squad for the trip. Bielefeld are without Daniel Richter and Monju Momuluh. The two teams are tied on eight points, so expect an open, mistake filled game with chances at both ends. Bielefeld's home form should just about get them there, 2-1. Be clear on the risk. Four of Bielefeld's six home games ended level, including 2-2 with Heidenheim and 2-2 with St Pauli, and Bielefeld have to win this one. They have also been scoring more than their chances deserve lately. We are with the home side, but with no room to spare.

💬 Magdeburg are simply the better side in this one, and that is why we are on them. They sit 6th on 13 points from 7 games, and they have scored 5 more goals than they have let in. Dresden are 17th in the relegation places on 5 points, and they have not won in five. Dresden have created next to nothing over their last three games. They let in more than a goal a game, and they are missing Lars Buenning, Kenneth Schmidt and Thomas Keller. Magdeburg have won 10 of their last 17 games. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in just over a goal a game. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 17, so they know how to finish teams off. This is a derby, and both sides have had eight days to get ready. Expect Dresden to dig in for an hour. Magdeburg should find a way through once the home legs go, and a 1-2 away win looks the most likely result. That puts us on the right side. The worry is the history between these two. Four of the last nine meetings were ties, and Dresden have lost only one of those nine. Magdeburg's finishing has also been running ahead of the chances they make. We still think Magdeburg come out of this one in front.

💬 Oviedo travel with most of their attack missing, and that is the heart of this one. Juan Cruz, Estanis Pedrola, Ilyas Chaira, Carlos Fernandez, Chris Ramos and Alexandru Isfan are all out. Oviedo barely score on the road as it is. They have won two of their last seven away games and score less than a goal a game in them. Their games have had just over 2 goals in total on average, and only 7 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Ceuta do not score many either. They score less than a goal a game at home and have won two of their last nine there. They sit 21st on 5 points from 9 games. The one bright spot is their last three games, which were much tighter at the back than the results suggest. So this has the feel of a game that one goal decides. A 1-0 home win looks the most likely result, with very few clean chances at either end. The honest warning is Oviedo's away form, which swings from one extreme to the other. They have won by 2 or more goals in 3 of their last 15 games, and lost by that much in 5. A one-sided game is not off the table. Ceuta's better spell is also only three games old. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Osasuna are not a side that wins games right now, and that is the base of this pick. They have won 3 of their last 15 games and have no win in their last five. They are 16th, level on points and goal difference with Racing. At home Osasuna are tight but blunt. They score less than a goal a game at El Sadar. Their four home games this season finished 1-1, 0-2, 1-0 and 0-0, so nothing gets away from them there. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games. Jorge Herrando and Ruben Del Castillo are both out, and Kike Barja needs a late check. Racing arrive in much better shape. They have won 6 and tied 4 of their last 14 games, and they score 2 goals a game. Their only real worry is in goal, where Simon Eriksson is doubtful and Agirrezabala steps in. Put that together and a 1-1 looks the most likely result. Racing coming away unbeaten is exactly what we want. There are two things against us. Racing have won one of their last seven away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. The worst of that came at Barcelona and Celta. Osasuna have also won three of the last six meetings between these two. We are still with Racing to take something from this game.

💬 Fresh legs against tired ones is the heart of this one. Fiorentina have had eight days to get ready. Como played at Feyenoord in the Champions League on Wednesday and have had four. Fiorentina are also hard to beat at home. They have tied four of their last eight there and let in a goal a game in them. They have been making more chances than their results show over the last four games. Como are the better team on paper. They have won 10 of their last 17 games and score almost 2 goals a game. They travel well too, scoring 2 goals a game on the road. The problem is who leads the line. Kean is out with a muscle injury and Diao was hurt at Feyenoord. That leaves Douvikas on his own up front. Put the rest gap and the missing forwards together and a 1-1 looks the most likely result. Fiorentina coming away unbeaten is exactly what we want. The honest worry is where the hosts sit. Fiorentina are 18th with four points from six games, and they lost 1-2 at Genoa last time out. A home side in that kind of rut can simply be beaten again. Como have also won three of the last five meetings between these two. We are still happy to back Fiorentina to stay in this game.

💬 Both teams played in Europe on Thursday, and tired legs tend to mean goals. Neither defence is certain to be at full strength, with rest and rotation in play for both teams. Bournemouth's games keep producing them too, with 10 of their last 15 having 3 or more goals. Bournemouth are the better side in this one and they score 2 goals a game at home. Their games average 3 goals in total. They have lost 3 of their last 15, and they get Justin Kluivert and Amine Adli back. Sunderland have been making plenty of chances over their last five games. They let in more than a goal a game, and they are missing centre half Dan Ballard along with Thomas Meunier and Romaine Mundle. That is a big hole at the back, and Bournemouth have the attack to find it. So we expect an open game rather than a tight one. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely result, with Sunderland getting on the board from the chances they make. That is enough for us. The warning is Sunderland's own games, which have been quiet. Only 7 of their last 17 had 3 or more goals, and they score just over a goal a game. Only two of the last six meetings between these two had 3 or more goals. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Leeds have been tough to beat at home, and that is the base of this pick. They have not lost any of their last five at Elland Road, letting in under a goal a game. They score almost 2 goals a game there as well. They have also had eight days to get ready for this. United arrive five days after losing 0-2 at Atletico Madrid. They score a goal a game on the road and have won one of their last six away games. They are creating very little at the moment, and the team news is thin. Sesko and Ugarte are out along with Dorgu and Heaton. Mainoo, Shaw and Mazraoui all need late checks. Recent meetings point the same way, with three of the last five ending level. So a 1-1 looks the single most likely result. That is not a full win for us, so we want Leeds to push on and take the game. A home crowd and a week of rest make that a fair ask. The risk is the longer history. Leeds have won one of their last 12 meetings with United, tying five and losing six. Their home run is only five games old too. The 3-6 loss at Chelsea in the League Cup showed the defence can come apart. We are still backing Leeds to avoid defeat here.

💬 Freiburg are the side in form here, and that is why we are on them. They have won four of their last five games, with a tie in the other. They have 13 points from five league games and are the higher placed of these two. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 2 goals a game on the road. Leverkusen are strong at home. They have won four of their last five there and score almost 3 goals a game overall. What pulls them back is the team news. Terrier, Kofane and Ben Seghir are all out, so three attackers are missing from the front line. Both teams played in Europe on Thursday and have had three days since. Almost everything about this game points to goals. Freiburg's games average 4 goals in total, and 14 of their last 16 had 3 or more. The last five meetings read 3-3, 2-0, 2-2, 5-1 and 3-2. A 2-2 looks the most likely result, and Freiburg taking something from this is just what we want. The clear risk is Leverkusen at home. That home run came with very little let in, under a goal a game. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12. Freiburg are without Suzuki after his red card, and Yilmaz is short of match fitness. We are still with Freiburg to stay in this one.

💬 Nothing in the history of this game says goals or big wins, and that is why we want Cadiz to stay in it. The last 16 meetings produced just over a goal a game between them, and 8 of those 16 were ties. The last five read 0-2, 2-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1. Granada have not been good at home. They have won one of their last five there, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in more than one. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14 games. Cadiz are struggling too, sitting 20th with seven points from nine games. The useful part for us is how they lose. Cadiz have tied five of their last 12 games and have lost by 2 or more goals only once in that run. They have not won any of their last five away games, but they tied three of them. Granada have had six days since their last game and Cadiz seven, so both arrive fresh. Put all of that together and a 1-1 looks the most likely result. That is exactly what we want. The risk is how Granada have been playing. They have made far more chances than their goal return shows over the last four games. If that starts going in, they win this comfortably. We are still with Cadiz to come away from this one unbeaten.

💬 Celta games just do not produce goals, and that is the heart of this one. Their games average just over 2 goals in total, and only 5 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Three of their last ten finished 0-0. Celta score just over a goal a game and let in under one, so little happens at either end. Alaves are not the team to break that pattern. They have won one of their last seven away games and score just over a goal a game on the road. They have been making very few chances across their last five games. Celta have tied five of their eight league games and came away from Elche with a 0-0 last time out. Celta played Juventus on Thursday and have had three days to Alaves' eight. Tired legs will not help the home attack. There is almost nothing between these two sides. A 1-1 looks the single most likely result, and a quiet night at Balaidos is what we are after. The warning comes from the away side's own games. Alaves games average almost 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 16 had 3 or more. The last 18 meetings between these two averaged almost 3 goals as well. Those are real numbers against us. We still want the low scoring game here.

💬 Le Havre have won just 1 of their last 12 games, and that is the heart of this pick. They are bottom of Ligue 1 with 2 points from their 6 league games, and they have tied 6 of those 12. Their home games this autumn have brought almost nothing. They tied 0-0 with Angers, lost 1-2 to Brest and lost 0-1 to Monaco, so one goal in three. Le Havre score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. The team news makes it harder again. Seven players are out, including defenders Toure and Pembele, and Seko is suspended. Auxerre are no great side either, but they have won 5 of their last 12 and score more than a goal a game. Games between these two are usually tight. The last four read 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 3-1, and the last 20 meetings averaged under 3 goals in total. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish here, and a tie is exactly what we want. The clear worry is Auxerre away from home. They have lost all three league trips and let in 12 goals in them, so a Le Havre win is a real danger. Even so, this Le Havre team barely win at all, and we side with Auxerre to come away with something.

💬 Monaco have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games, and that is why we are with Lorient. Monaco are the better team and sit third in the table, but they win games narrowly. Their league trips this autumn finished 1-0, 2-1 and 1-1. They also play on three days' rest after Thursday's 2-1 win away at CSKA Sofia, and Lorient have had eight days off. Monaco are without the suspended Brunner, and Dier is a doubt with a muscle problem. Lorient keep games tight. They score just over a goal a game, they let in just over a goal a game, and their games average under 3 goals in total. Their last three home outings finished 1-0, 2-2 and 1-2. Lorient have also won the last two meetings between these teams 3-1 and 3-1, so they know how to hurt Monaco. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that result suits us. The danger is clear enough. Monaco have won 8 of their last 13 and score just over 2 goals a game, so they can take this comfortably if they come out fresh. Lorient have problems of their own, with four players unavailable. We still want Lorient here, and we think they take something from the night.

💬 Nottingham Forest have not scored a single goal in their three home league games this season, and that is where this one starts. Those games finished 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1. Forest score under a goal a game and have won only 1 of their last 11. Igor Jesus and Savona are out, and captain Gibbs-White is a doubt after a calf problem that kept him out of training all week. Arsenal do not need a big night to win this. They let in under a goal a game and have won 14 of their last 17. Their away wins have been 1-0 at Villa and 2-0 at Sunderland. They are also without Saliba and Hincapie at centre-back, so they will take fewer risks than usual. The past meetings tell the same story. Forest have not scored in four of their last five against Arsenal. A 0-1 Arsenal win looks the most likely finish, and a game like that is exactly what we are after. The one thing that could beat us is Forest's finishing. They have made plenty of chances in their last five games without taking them, and the game opens up if that turns around here. Arsenal can also add a late second once Forest start chasing. We still expect a quiet, low-scoring night at the City Ground.

💬 Hoffenheim have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 15 games, and that is the main reason we are with Gladbach. Hoffenheim sit 17th, they have lost four of their last five, and they play on three days' rest after Thursday's 2-3 loss in Europe. Bernardo is suspended and Hajdari and Wimmer are out. They let in just over 2 goals a game on the road, so they will not control this. Gladbach are in a bad way. They are bottom of the Bundesliga with no points from 5 games, a goal difference of -11 and five straight losses. They have let in 18 goals in those five league games, and seven players are out, including Kleindienst and Itakura. The one thing in their favour is that they stay close. Gladbach have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 12, and they have had seven days to get ready. These two always serve up an open game. The last 20 meetings averaged more than 4 goals, and the last five read 4-0, 1-5, 4-4, 2-1 and 3-4. A 2-2 looks the most likely finish, and a tie is enough for us. The worry is obvious. Gladbach have lost five in a row and cannot keep a clean sheet, so a heavy home defeat is on the table. We still think Gladbach take something from this.

💬 Atalanta come to San Siro with their back line in pieces, and that is the best reason to back goals here. Three centre-backs are out, including Hien and Kossounou, and Elmas is suspended after a red card. Bellanova, Raspadori and Sulemana are all doubtful. Milan should get through a patched-up defence. They have not lost in Serie A, with three wins and three ties and a goal difference of +6. Both home league games ended 2-0 and 3-0, and they put four past Salzburg on Thursday. Atalanta still carry a threat of their own. De Ketelaere and Krstovic can get one back, and Atalanta have been giving up plenty of chances in their last five games. Both sides played in Europe on Thursday and have had only three days off, so legs will be heavy and mistakes should follow. The last 20 meetings averaged almost 3 goals in total. A 2-1 Milan win looks the most likely finish, and three goals lands this for us. There are brakes on it, though. Atalanta have scored one goal in two away league games this autumn. The last five meetings read 2-3, 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 and 1-1, so this pairing has often been tight. Milan have also had 3 or more goals in only 8 of their last 16 games. We still want goals in this one.

💬 This has the makings of a slow, controlled afternoon, and that is why we want the quiet game. Valladolid have won five of their last seven at home and let in less than a goal a game there. They squeeze matches rather than trade chances. Their squad is thin right now, with Guille Bueno and Dani Perez both out and several others unavailable, so the home attack should carry less bite than usual. Eldense offer very little on the road. They have scored four goals across their last seven away games and lost five of them. Only 6 of Valladolid's last 15 games have had 3 or more goals, which shows how tight their matches usually are. The two meetings between these sides both finished 1-0 to Valladolid, and another 1-0 is the honest read here. One goal often decides games like this, with one team happy to defend and the other short of ideas. There is a genuine catch though. Eldense have been in plenty of busy games, with 10 of their last 14 ending with 3 or more goals. If they score early and Valladolid have to chase, this opens up fast. The head to head is also only two games from a few seasons back, so it is a soft pattern on its own. We still lean to the tight, low scoring game.

💬 La Rosaleda has turned into a place where games go nowhere, and that is the main reason we are on Malaga here. They have tied six of their last seven home games. Malaga score less than a goal a game at home and let in a goal a game, so they keep matches tight and take the point. Real Sociedad are the better side, but they have won only 4 of their last 12 games. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and they have not won by 2 or more goals in any of those 12. Freshness sits with the hosts too. Real Sociedad were away in Belgium in midweek and arrive on three days off. Malaga have had nine days to prepare for a game they want to slow right down. These two have been close for years, with Malaga winning five and tying five of the last 17 meetings. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and a tight night like that suits us. The caution is real. Malaga sit bottom of La Liga on 4 points and Real Sociedad are sixth on 13 from eight games. That class gap can show up in one bad spell, and Malaga have ridden their luck at the back lately. We still back them to come out of this unbeaten.

💬 These two keep serving up tight, low scoring games. The last five meetings finished 2-2, 0-1, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-2, and none was decided by more than one goal. Across the last 20 meetings they have averaged under 3 goals in total. Juventus are built for that kind of night right now. They let in less than a goal a game across six home games, and only 4 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. They have also tied 5 of those 13. Their attack is thin as well, with Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli, Ekhator and Milik all missing, and they played in Europe three days ago. Lazio will not mind a slow game either. They have won four of five on the road and let in less than a goal a game away from home. They score more than a goal a game, so they carry a real threat. They just tend to take one of the few clear chances they get rather than create a flood of them. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that keeps us on the right side. The warning is Lazio's own games. They have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 13, so they are not always this quiet. They have also been giving up more chances at the back than their record shows. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Nice are a different team on the road, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won one of their last eight away games and score less than a goal a game away from home. At home they score more than a goal a game, so the drop off is real. They also travel without Abergel, Bombito and Mendy. Lyon have been strong in their own stadium. They have scored just over 2 goals a game across seven home games and won four of them. A 4-0 against Rennes and a 3-2 against Crystal Palace are in there. They won the last meeting between these two 2-0. Lyon have also won 11 of the last 20 games against Nice. This should be a patient Lyon night. They build one goal by keeping the ball, then add a second once the visiting defence tires. A 2-0 is the most likely score, and that is clear of what we need. The honest worry is Nice's habit of tying games. They have tied 7 of their last 15, and a 1-1 would sink this. Lyon also lost Openda to a broken leg and played in Europe three days ago, so their team is hard to call. We still think Lyon have too much here.

💬 Sabadell have been two different teams home and away, and that is why we are on the home side. They have scored just three goals in their last seven away games and have only one win on the road. In their last six at home they score more than 2 goals a game, so this is a big drop. They also travel light, missing Fornes, Gioacchini, Lopez-Pinto, Xavi Moreno and centre back Edgar. Burgos have been awkward to beat at El Plantio. They have won four and tied three of eight home games there, letting in less than a goal a game. Across their last 15 games they have not lost by 2 or more goals once. That is a solid base for a night like this. Burgos are not flying, to be fair. They have lost their last two, 0-1 at home to Granada and 1-2 at Almeria, and they score just over a goal a game. So expect a slow, cramped game that one goal decides, and Burgos are the side more likely to find it. A 1-0 home win looks the most likely result. The risk is plain. Sabadell have tied three of their seven away games and keep things tight. There is no recent history between these two to lean on. We are still with Burgos.

💬 Madrid win this game more often than not, but they rarely win it big. The last three meetings finished 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0. Those were controlled wins, not thrashings, and that is the pattern we are backing. Madrid are missing most of their front line. Vinicius Junior is suspended, Rodrygo has been out a long time, and Asencio and Mendy are out as well. They also played a 4-3 Champions League game in Rome four days ago. Sevilla have had six days off. Madrid have won all seven home games at 3 goals a game, so they are still the better side here. Sevilla do not fold on the road. They have won three of six away games at almost 2 goals a game, with a 3-3 at Levante and a 3-1 at Athletic Club in that run. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 12 games. Mbappe and Bellingham should still win it for Madrid. A patched up attack and a weakened back four point to a 2-1, not a big win, and that keeps Sevilla inside the margin we need. The danger is real. Madrid have 4-0, 4-1 and 4-1 home wins this season and won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 15. Sevilla are also missing Romero, Marcao, Guridi and Sierra. We still think this one stays close.