Villarreal vs Elche — Tips & Analysis

Elche +1.25: Elche keep games close, and that is the case for this pick. They have been beaten by more than one goal only twice in their last 16 games, and they have tied five of them. Elche score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Few of their games run away from them. They have also had six days off since their last game. Villarreal are the better team and should win this. They score almost 2 goals a game and have just beaten Napoli 3-1 in the Champions League. The catch is what that run costs them. Villarreal have had four days since Tuesday night, with another European game to come, and Pepe and Buchanan are both out. They have lost three of their seven home games as well. The last 12 meetings read 6 wins for Villarreal, 4 ties and 2 for Elche, and averaged almost 3 goals, so these are usually tight. A 2-1 Villarreal win is the most likely score. Elche have to stay within a goal, and that is exactly what their record says they do. A clear two goal Villarreal win beats this pick, and they have done that in 5 of their last 16 games. Tired legs and two missing players make that harder. We still want Elche, because they rarely lose by more than a goal.