Derby vs Stoke City — Tips & Analysis

Stoke City +0: Derby have not won at home all season, and that is the heart of this pick. They have two ties and five defeats from their seven games at Pride Park, scoring under a goal a game and letting in almost 2. Derby sit 23rd of 24 on six points from ten games with a -10 goal difference. They are also in bits. Seven players are out, including goalkeeper Widell Zetterstrom, Agyemang, Cashin, Clarke, Forsyth, Murkin and Taylor. Derby have had three days' rest after losing 1-4 at QPR. Stoke are ninth on 16 points and have won three of their last five games. They are the stronger side here and should get through a home defence this leaky. A 1-2 away win fits best, with Derby scoring as they usually do before being picked off, and that result lands this pick. The warning is Stoke's own away form. They have won two of their seven games on the road, scoring a goal a game and letting in 2. Their recent results are also running ahead of the chances they make, so part of this good run is borrowed. These two normally split the points as well, with five wins each and four ties in the last 14 meetings. We still want Stoke, because Derby cannot win at Pride Park and are short of far too many bodies.