Estac Troyes vs Lens — Tips & Analysis

Estac Troyes +0.75: Lens are the better team, but they arrive in poor shape for a trip like this. They are missing three defenders in Gradit, Nawrocki and the suspended Udol, with Chavez and Sima also out. Lens play on four days of rest after a 0-2 home loss to Sporting CP. Troyes have had six days. Lens still win plenty, 9 of their last 16, and they score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they also let in more than a goal a game, so there is a way back here for the hosts. Troyes are a mess right now. They have lost four in a row and did not score in three of them. Those three all finished 0-2, at home to Marseille, then at Angers and at Lille. They do score more than a goal a game across their last 13 though. This game has been a tight one for years. The last 17 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals, so blowing one side away is not the pattern. A 1-2 Lens win is the likeliest single score, so our pick needs a little more than that. Troyes have to take something from the night. That is a real ask from a side on this run, and 4 of their last 13 ended in a 2 goal defeat or worse. We still take the head start with Lens this light at the back.