Tips — Friday, 16 October 2026

💬 Nürnberg are the better side here by a clear margin. They sit second with 17 points from seven games and a +10 goal difference, and they have lost once in their last 14. Cottbus will not make it comfortable, and that suits us fine. The newly promoted hosts play wide open games. Their last eight produced 33 goals, including a 4-4 at Wolfsburg and a 3-4 at home to Fürth. Eight of Cottbus's last 12 games had 3 or more goals, and they let in almost 2 a game. An open game suits the team with the better finishers. Nürnberg score just over 2 goals a game and let in just over one, so they are stronger in both boxes. Their team news is kinder too. Cottbus look set to miss Timmy Thiele after knee surgery, with Julian Guttau and Erik Engelhardt doubtful. Nürnberg are only missing Finn Becker, Kristian Mandic and Mikayil Faye. Both sides have had six days off, so tired legs should not come into it. A 1-2 Nürnberg win is the likeliest outcome, and an away win is all this one asks for. The catch is a real one. Nürnberg have tied five of their seven away games, so they are hard to beat on the road but slow to put teams away. A tie would hurt. We still back the better team to find the winning goal.

💬 Goals have followed Hertha all season, and that is the main reason we want the busier game. They have won all seven league games for 21 points and a +11 goal difference. Their away trips have been loud, 3-1 at Osnabrück and 5-3 at Braunschweig. Eight of Hertha's last 12 games had 3 or more goals. Kiel are the other end of the table, bottom on 4 points from seven games and still without a league win. Their home games are not quiet, though. Their three home league games this season finished 1-1, 2-2 and 2-2, so two of the three ended with four goals. Kiel also look thin at the back. Lasse Rosenboom, Frederyk Roslyng, Hamza Muqaj and Taisei Abe are all expected to miss out. Hertha score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than one, so they do not shut up shop either. Kiel have had seven days of rest to Hertha's five, and a bottom side chasing a first home win will push forward. The honest part is the margin. The likeliest single score is a 1-2 Hertha win, which leaves this one needing a fourth goal. Kiel have tied three of their five home games, and none of their last 12 games reached 5 goals, so a tighter night is well in play. We still want the goals here.

💬 Leganes cannot score, and that is why we are on Cordoba. The hosts have managed seven goals in eleven games and did not score in five of their last six league games. Even when they win they do not win big, with no win by 2 or more goals in their last 11. Cordoba carry a threat the hosts simply do not. They have scored in nine of their last ten games, so goals do come from somewhere. Nothing about this away side is special, but they only need one to walk off with a result. The chances tell the same story as the goals. Over their last three games Leganes have created almost nothing and let the other side make far more. These sides have only met twice, a 1-2 and a 0-0, so there is little history to lean on. Expect a stretched, nervy game with very few clear openings. A 0-1 away win is the most likely finish, and that is enough for this pick. The warning here is real. Leganes have won three of their last four home games and let in only a goal a game doing it. Cordoba have also lost five of their last seven away trips, so this one could go either way. We still want Cordoba, because asking Leganes for goals has not worked all season.

💬 Goals follow Frankfurt everywhere right now, and that is the heart of this pick. Their last five home games produced 20 goals, about 4 goals a game at Deutsche Bank Park. They have not won any of those five. Frankfurt sit 14th on 5 points and have let in 16 goals in five league games. Their defending is as bad as that record looks, and nobody expects it to tighten up overnight. Koln are not built to shut a game down either. 13 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. They have won only one of their last eight away trips but tied four of them. They also let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. These two clubs have a long habit of trading goals, with the last 20 meetings averaging just over 3 goals. 10 of Frankfurt's last 11 games had 3 or more goals, so this is not a one off. A 2-2 is the most likely finish, and that is enough to get this home. The honest worry is Koln's attack. Ragnar Ache and Thijs Dallinga are both out, so the away side is short of finishers and may only manage one. Frankfurt leak enough goals to carry this on their own, and we want the busy game here.

💬 Sassuolo have scored and let in a goal in all six of their league games this season. That is the cleanest reason to back goals here, and 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Frosinone have been strong at home, winning six of their last eight and scoring more than 2 goals a game in them. Their defending is the soft spot. They have let in under a goal a game, but they give up far more chances than that, and records like it do not last. Sassuolo are missing four regulars from the middle of their side, which makes stopping a busy home attack harder again. On merit there is nothing between these teams. Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from six games and Sassuolo are 11th on 8. The most likely single score is a 2-1 home win, so this pick leans on the game being busier than that. That is a fair ask in a game where the home defence is living on luck and the away side scores in everything. The risk is Sassuolo on their travels. They have not won any of their last six away games and score under a goal a game on the road. Their meeting in September finished 1-1, so these two can keep it tight when it suits them. We still lean to the busier game.

💬 Toulouse do not win big, and that is the base of this pick. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 16 games. Le Mans have not lost at home in six, winning three and tying three, and they score 2 goals a game there. The MMArena has been a hard place to visit. Toulouse have let in a goal in all six of their league games and let in more than 2 goals a game on their away trips. 12 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, so quiet afternoons are not their style. Both teams come in with six days of rest. Le Mans are missing Bourabaa, Colas and Rossignol, so the hosts are not at full strength. A 2-2 is the most likely finish, and Le Mans avoiding defeat is what this pick is built on. The caution is the history between them. Toulouse have not lost to Le Mans in six meetings and have won the last four. Casper Tengstedt is in form too, with four goals in four league games, so the away side has the player most likely to decide it. We still want Le Mans with a head start, because Toulouse keep tying games they should be winning.

💬 These two produce tight, low scoring games, and both squads are too beaten up to change that. The last 18 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and the last five finished 1-1, 3-2, 0-2, 1-1 and 0-1. Burnley have tied six of their last seven home games. They score just over a goal a game and have 17 players ruled out, most of the forward line among them. Wolves are the better side on paper, 10th on 14 points to Burnley's 21st on 8. Both of their senior strikers are out though. Raul Jimenez is gone until January and Adam Armstrong is injured as well, so the away finishing is in the same state as the home side's. Both teams also played three days before this one, Burnley tying 2-2 with Charlton and Wolves losing 1-3 at home to Bolton. Tired legs and missing forwards point the same way. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that is a comfortable result for this pick. Burnley did put four past Watford on 10 October, so the thin attack can still have a day. Wolves create more than their results show as well. We still expect a quiet game between two sides who cannot finish.

💬 Levante bring chaos with them, and that is the case for goals here. Their last seven games produced 26 goals, including a 5-2, a 2-4 and a 3-3. 9 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They also give up a lot of chances, so the hosts will get theirs. Deportivo are 8th on 10 points and have won four of their last 11. They create steadily at Riazor and should take the lead at some point. Levante are 17th on 6 points and let in almost 2 goals on every away trip, which is why that lead rarely stays quiet. The last 12 meetings between them averaged closer to 3 goals than 2. A 2-1 home win is the most likely finish, and that gets this pick home. There is a genuine catch. Deportivo are missing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Marc Casado, and Lorenzo Amatucci is suspended. Their attack is genuinely short, so the hosts may not score enough on their own. Levante score under a goal a game away from home, which keeps a 1-0 or a 1-1 live. We still want the goals, because most of Levante's games have been busy ones.