Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Derbies between these two rarely turn into high scoring games. The last 20 meetings averaged 3 goals, and fewer than half of them produced 3 goals or more. Atletico are the reason. They have won 4 and tied 2 of their 7 home games, letting in under a goal a game at the Metropolitano. That part of their game still works. The attack is a different story. Sorloth is out with a muscle problem. Julian Alvarez has missed the last two games with a muscle injury, so Jonathan David is expected to lead the line. Atletico score almost 2 goals a game, and without their two main forwards that number should drop. Real carry the goals in this one. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 11 of their last 15. They have their own absences, with Militao, Mendy and Rodrygo all out. Expect a physical, tight derby that Atletico stay in for long spells before Real's front line finds a way through. A 1-2 to Real is the likeliest finish, and three goals keeps us on the right side. The risk is real. Real have been creating a lot of chances lately, and this game finished 5-2 in September 2025, so it can get away from you. A derby can also swing on an early penalty or a red card. We still expect a tight game with few goals.