FC Porto vs Benfica — Tips & Analysis

FC Porto +0.25: Porto have been the harder team to beat at their own ground, and that is why we want them with a head start. Porto have won 12 and lost only 3 of their last 18 games. At home they let in less than a goal a game, with seven wins and one loss in eleven there. Benfica bring the bigger numbers. They have won 12, tied 4 and lost 1 of their last 17, and they score just over 3 goals a game. That scoring run is hotter than they can keep up, and a game like this usually pulls it back. These two have a history of tight ones. Their last 20 meetings have averaged under 3 goals a game, and the last three ended 2-2, 1-0 and 0-0. Both squads are short of players. Porto are missing a centre back and a striker in Samu Omorodion, and Benfica have doubts over Sudakov and Aursnes. Benfica have also had only 4 days since their game at Milan, against 8 for Porto. Expect a careful first hour and a game decided by one moment at each end. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that is a result we are happy with. The worry is Benfica's top level. They have won by 2 or more goals in 11 of their last 17 games, so an early goal would stretch this. We still trust Porto to stay with them.