Estrela vs Academico Viseu — Tips & Analysis

Academico Viseu +0.5: Estrela do not beat anyone by much, and that is the heart of this pick. Every one of their last 11 games finished level or by a single goal. They have won 2 and tied 6 of those 11, so getting a result out of them is the normal outcome. Estrela are not hard to score against either. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 11 games had 3 or more goals. Their last six all produced at least three, including 2-2 ties with Famalicao, Alverca and Sporting. Viseu arrive in better shape. They have won their last two league games, they let in under a goal a game, and they have won 8 and tied 5 of their last 18. On the road they have been steady too, letting in one goal a game. Viseu have also had 8 days since their last game to Estrela's 6, so they should be the fresher side. Expect an end to end afternoon with chances at both ends. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, and a tie is all we need. The risk is that Viseu's defending looks better than it has been, helped by second tier games inside their record. They have not created much lately either, so one Estrela goal could decide it. We are still happy taking Viseu with a start.