SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim — Tips & Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 +1: Paderborn do not get beaten badly, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 17 games, and they have won 7 and tied 6 in that run. A promoted team that keeps games close is the profile we want. Their problem is the other end. Paderborn have not scored in any of their three Bundesliga games so far. The opening run was Dortmund, Freiburg and Mainz though, which is about as hard as a start gets. They also miss Awortwie-Grant, Eickel and Gayret through injury. Hoffenheim are far from a machine. They have won 5, tied 3 and lost 6 of their last 14, and they let in 2 goals a game. Away from home they have won 2, tied 1 and lost 4, and they let in more than 2 a game on their travels. The timing helps the home side. Hoffenheim lost 0-2 at OFI in the Europa League on Thursday and have had only 3 days since, against 8 for Paderborn. Tired legs should mean a stretched, even game, and a 1-1 is the most likely finish. The risk is obvious. If Paderborn stay as blunt as they have been, a 0-2 is very live. We think the rest gap and their habit of staying close carry this one.