Tips — Monday, 21 September 2026

💬 Myanmar's big wins have come against far weaker teams, and that is the key to this one. They beat Turkmenistan 8-0, Bahrain 6-0 and Timor-Leste 3-0. Against sides at their own level they look very different. They tied 1-1 with the Philippines, and Bangladesh beat them 2-1 in Asian Cup qualifying in July 2025. Bangladesh arrive in awful shape. They have not scored in their last five games, losing 0-6, 0-10, 0-4, 0-5 and 0-2. The 0-6 and the 0-10 came against South Korea and Korea DPR, who are a level above anything Myanmar have managed. Myanmar are not flying either. They have no points from two games and a goal difference of -13. On the road they score a goal a game, winning one, tying one and losing three. This is played on neutral ground in Osaka, so neither team has a crowd behind them. Both sides are already out of the tournament, both have had four days off, and only pride is left. Expect a nervy, scrappy game decided by a set piece rather than by good football. A 1-1 is the most likely single score, and that is enough for this pick. The worry is simple. Bangladesh have not scored in five games, so an early Myanmar goal could stretch this. We still trust Bangladesh to keep it close.

💬 The Philippines have to win this game. Both teams have four points, and China lead the group on goal difference, so a tie is enough for China to finish top. A team that must win cannot sit back, and that is why goals look likely. China are the stronger side. They have won 6 of their last 10, score more than 2 goals a game and put five past Hong Kong in their opening group game. Wang Shuang has already scored twice in this tournament. The Philippines can play too. They have won 7 of their last 13, score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. Both teams bring busy games with them. China's games have averaged just over 3 goals and the Philippines' have averaged 3 goals. This is played on neutral ground in Japan, so neither side is at home, and both have had four days off. The most likely single score is a 2-1 China win, and this wants a busier night than that. With the Philippines forced to chase and China happy to keep going, that is a fair ask. Two things could spoil it. China can also control a game and shut it down, as they did in their 0-0 with Japan. Both sides are close to the knockout rounds, so either could rest players. We still want the busy game.

💬 Respublika rarely get beaten badly, and that is the best reason to be with them. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 18 games. They are also that rare team who are better away from home. On the road they have won three, tied two and lost four, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in just over one. At home they let in 2 goals a game. They have won three of their last four away trips, including 2-1 at BuxDu and 3-1 at Kattaqurgon. Lochin are solid at their own ground, with four wins, four ties and one loss there, and less than a goal a game let in. Their home nights are tight rather than one-sided. The last four finished 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 0-0. The only meeting between these two, back in May, finished 0-0. All of that points to another close, low-scoring afternoon. A 1-1 is the most likely single score, and that is exactly the kind of result this pick wants. There is a catch. Respublika have had only four days off against Lochin's eight. Both teams have taken bad beatings this season too, Lochin losing 0-5 at Metalourg and Respublika 0-7 at home to Gazalkent. We still expect Respublika to stay with them.

💬 Neither team here looks likely to fill a game with goals. Pakhtakor II have won 3, tied 1 and lost 15 of their last 19 games. They score less than a goal a game and have managed 13 goals all season. A side that cannot score keeps the total down, even on the nights it loses. Shortan are the better side by a distance. They have won 12 of their last 20 and sit third, still chasing promotion. On the road they take 2 goals a game. Across the season they let in just over a goal a game. How Shortan win matters just as much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 20 games, and seven of their wins came by a single goal. They go in front and then manage the game rather than chase more. Only 4 of Pakhtakor II's 19 games have produced four or more goals. The one meeting between these two had 2 goals in it. A 0-2 Shortan win is the most likely score, and a game like that stays quiet enough for us. The worry is Pakhtakor II themselves. They are a reserve side, their team changes week to week, and they have already lost 1-5 this season. A big win like that is the one shape that beats us. We still want the quieter game.

💬 This game ends level far too often to ignore. The last 12 meetings between these two produced eight ties, and Aldosivi have tied seven of their last 20 games. Aldosivi are having a rough season. They have won only two of their last 20 and score under a goal a game at their own ground. They are also without defenders Leonardo Sigali and Braian Cufre. One thing helps them. They have had nine days off, and Atletico Tucuman have had five. Tucuman are the better side, but they are not a team that runs away with games. They let in less than a goal a game and score just over one. They have won by 2 or more goals only three times in their last 20. Put those habits together and you get a slow, tight night. The last 12 meetings averaged under 2 goals. The most likely single score is a 1-0 Tucuman win, and that beats this pick. Aldosivi have to take something from this game, and they have a habit that says they can. They have tied five of their ten home games. Tucuman have the better players, and the two missing defenders make a late goal more likely. It is a close call. Ties come up so often in this one that we are staying with Aldosivi.

💬 Barracas Central have almost stopped scoring, and that is the heart of this pick. They score under a goal a game, and their last three league games finished 1-1, 0-0 and 0-0. There is more than just that run. 14 of their last 20 games had fewer than 3 goals, and they have gone seven games without a win. A team in that state does not chase games. They sit deep, protect their own box and are happy with a night of nothing. Independiente Rivadavia are clearly the better team. They finished 13 points clear of Barracas in the Apertura table. They are a different side away from Mendoza. On the road they score just over a goal a game, winning three, tying four and losing three. So the shape of this one is easy to see. Rivadavia will have the ball, Barracas will defend deep, and one goal should be enough to decide it. A 1-0 away win is the most likely single score, and a night like that lands this pick. The warning is real. Rivadavia have been creating plenty of chances lately, and 10 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals. If they take those chances early, this gets away from us. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Lanus have made their own ground a hard place to score. They let in less than a goal a game at home, where they have won five, tied three and lost two. Lanus do not give much at the other end either. They score under a goal a game across the season. Their last two wins, 3-0 at Deportivo Riestra and 1-0 against Defensa y Justicia, are the exception rather than the rule. Estudiantes are the bigger name, and they knocked Corinthians out in Brazil to reach the Copa Libertadores semi-finals. That is the problem for them here. They come in on five days' rest against Lanus' eight, with the semi-final still ahead. Away from home they struggle to score anyway, managing under a goal a game, winning three, tying one and losing five. The history says the same thing. The last 13 meetings produced six ties between these two, and only about a third of them reached 3 goals. A 0-0 is the most likely single score, and almost any tight night lands this. The risk sits with Lanus. They have won their last two and will want a third. If Estudiantes name a full side, they can win by 2, as they have done six times in their last 20. We still want the low-scoring game.