Fiorentina vs Napoli — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Both of these teams have gone quiet in front of goal, and that is why we want a low-scoring game in Florence. Fiorentina score more than a goal a game and sit 16th after a rough opening month. Napoli score more than a goal a game too, and they let in under a goal a game. Only 6 of Napoli's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Napoli also arrive with six players out, including McTominay, Giovane and Alisson Santos, plus doubts over Anguissa and Spinazzola. A side missing that many bodies usually travels to keep the game small. Fiorentina have won their last two, 4-2 at Venezia and 3-0 against Pisa, but those came against much weaker teams than this one. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 13 games and let in more than a goal a game. Napoli have had 7 days to prepare, Fiorentina 5. A 1-1 looks like the likeliest finish, and that is exactly what we want. There is real danger here. These two have averaged 3 goals a game across their last 20 meetings, and the last three all finished 1-2 or 1-3 to Napoli. Napoli are also without both first choice centre backs and their keeper, so goals could come. We still lean to the quiet game.