Tips — Saturday, 29 August 2026

💬 Leverkusen have not been winning by big margins. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 12 games. A new head coach on the opening day also means their patterns are unknown. Elversberg are dangerous at their own ground. They won 5 of their 6 home games in this run, scoring almost 3 goals a game and letting in under one. They have won three of their last five, with pre season wins over Strasbourg and Lorient behind them. Leverkusen still have the better squad. They score 2 goals a game, but they let in more than a goal a game, and their recent run includes 3-3, 6-3 and 1-3 scorelines. That is a back line you can score against. They are also without Ben Seghir and Culbreath. This is Elversberg's first Bundesliga game at the Kaiserlinde and the place will be rocking. Expect an open night where the home side land a few blows. A 1-2 Leverkusen win looks the most likely finish, so this should come down to one goal. The honest risk is the gap in class. Elversberg's whole record comes from the division below, and Leverkusen have Patrik Schick and far more depth. If the visitors take control early, they can win this by 3. We still think Elversberg keep it tight enough.

💬 Köln have had 3 or more goals in 13 of their last 17 games. Their games are busy because they defend loosely and still score. At home they let in almost 2 goals a game across their last eight there, and they score just over a goal a game overall. They were second best for chances in their cup win at fourth-tier Würzburger Kickers, and they are missing Hübers and Sebulonsen. Hoffenheim look the stronger side and they travel well. They scored 2 goals a game across their last seven away games, and 11 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They are without Lemperle, who is suspended, but there is plenty left in that attack. The history matches up too. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and about 2 in 3 of them had 3 or more. A 1-2 Hoffenheim win looks the most likely finish, and that is not quite enough on its own. We want a fourth goal, and two open defences on the first weekend of the season is how it usually arrives. The risk is the calendar. This is the opening Bundesliga game for both teams, with new signings and line-ups that have not played together. Openers can turn cagey. We still want the busy game here.

💬 Paderborn have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. They are hard to beat by a distance, and that is the whole case here. Mainz look strong on paper, but the scoring number flatters them. It is propped up by a 9-0 cup win over amateur side Krieschow. Take that out and they score a bit more than a goal a game. They are also without Silas, Martel and Nebel, so the attack is thinner than it looks. At home Mainz have won 3 and lost 3 of their last six games, letting in more than a goal a game there. Paderborn come in on a strong run. They lost only 1 of their last 9 away games, winning 4 and tying 4, and they let in just over a goal a game on the road. A 2-1 Mainz win looks the most likely finish, and that is not quite enough for a clear win. Paderborn need to take something from the game, and a Mainz attack missing three players hands them that chance. The honest risk is the step up. Paderborn are newly promoted and built most of that record in the second tier against weaker teams. They are also missing Michel, Gayret and Awortwie-Grant. We still expect them to stay close here.

💬 Leipzig do not win big, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 4 of their last 14 games. Gladbach have been just as hard to beat by a distance, losing by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. Leipzig are the better team. They have won 9 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game. They also let in more than a goal a game, so their games rarely turn into one way traffic. Gladbach score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. They have won 5 and tied 4 of their last 13, and they carry a real threat on the break. This matchup has been a grind for years. The last five meetings produced just four goals in total: 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-0. Across the last 20 games between them the average was under 3 goals. Leipzig are also without Baumgartner and Ouedraogo, which takes something off the attack. A 2-1 Leipzig win looks the most likely finish, and a one goal game is the shape this pick is built around. The worry is Gladbach on the road. They won 1 and lost 4 of their 7 away games in this run, so a bad night is possible. We still expect Gladbach to keep this close.

💬 Union open the season with their back line in pieces. Centre backs Markgraf and Nsoki are both out, Friedrich is a doubt, and goalkeeper Ronnow missed the cup tie with an adductor problem. Frankfurt are the wrong team to face like that, because they hurt sides in transition. Union have let in 2 goals a game across their last 11, and they lost by 2 or more in 4 of them. They have won only 4 of those 11 games, so there is little to trust at the back. Frankfurt have scored in each of their recent away games, which finished 2-3, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2. They have also had the better of this matchup, winning 8 of the last 17 meetings. They come in with eight days of rest to Union's six, so they should be the fresher side. Expect a stretched game with chances at both ends. A 1-2 Frankfurt win looks the most likely finish, and that is all this pick needs. The catch is that Frankfurt are not in great form themselves. They did not win any of their five games before the cup tie, losing 1-3, 1-2 and 2-3 along the way. They are missing Collins, Knauff and Ngankam too. Union's broken defence is still the bigger problem, so we side with Frankfurt.

💬 Bournemouth turn nearly every game into a tie. They have tied 9 of their last 15 games, and at home they have won 1 and tied 6 of their 7. Level, quiet afternoons are their normal. They score just over a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. Only 7 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. They have won by 2 or more once in 15 and have not lost by 2 or more at all. Nothing about them says goals. Everton have not let in a goal in their first two games, and they arrive on three days of rest after a midweek cup tie at Preston. Bournemouth have had six days. Tired legs late on tend to slow a game down rather than open it up. The recent history backs this up. The last five meetings between them produced only 10 goals: 2-1, 0-1, 3-0, 2-0 and 1-0. Bournemouth are also missing Adli, Araujo, Kroupi and Milosavljevic, so the attack is thin. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely finish, and that sits comfortably inside what we want. The risk is Everton's start to the season. They have scored six in their first two games, and 9 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. If they come out fresh and go for it, this could open up. We still expect a slow night.

💬 These two know each other far too well. The last three meetings finished 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1, and the last 12 games between them averaged just over 2 goals. Only a quarter of those 12 had 3 or more goals. Hull barely score. They get just over a goal a game and let in a goal a game. Only 6 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They beat Manchester United 2-0 on the opening day, so the defending is genuine. Hull are also badly short of bodies. Butland, Matazo, Hughes, Gyabi and Zambrano are all out, with Gelhardt and Jacob doubtful. A patched up team that struggles for goals is not about to open this game up. Both sides played midweek cup ties and have four days of rest, so legs will be heavy and changes are likely. Coventry should have the ball and the better chances without the game ever getting loose. A 1-0 Coventry win looks the most likely finish, and that is comfortably inside what we want. Coventry are the danger here. They have had 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 17 games, and they have won by 2 or more in 9 of them. An early goal could stretch this open. The history between these two still points to a quiet night, and that is where we stand.

💬 This Rotterdam derby has been loud for years, and that history is the case for goals here. The last 11 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals a game, with 3-2, 2-4 and 1-4 among the recent results. Excelsior play their part in that. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 10 of their last 15 finished with 3 or more. Sparta are the softer of the two. They have won 1 of their last 7 away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14. They do not just lose these games, they get pulled apart in them. Neither back four looks able to slow this down, and these two rarely turn the derby into an arm wrestle. We should be straight about the likely finish. A 2-1 home win is the single most likely score, and this pick needs the game to run past that. Against two defences that leak every week that is a fair ask. The risk is the version where Excelsior sit deep and the game dies at 1-1. That is why this is a measured call rather than a strong one, but we still want the busy game.

💬 Santa Clara have turned this season into a defending job, and that is the heart of this pick. They sit 3rd with 7 points from 3 games, built on an opening tie and then back to back 1-0 wins. They let in a goal a game across their last 15, and only 5 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. Alverca are in no shape to punish that. They score just over a goal a game and have won 3 of their last 13. They have already been beaten by Sporting CP and FC Porto, so the schedule has been brutal, but the scoring problem is real. The two league meetings between these sides finished 1-1 and 1-2, so there is no history of goals here either. Put a side that struggles for goals against a side built on clean sheets and you get a slow game with few clear chances. A 0-1 Santa Clara win is the most likely finish, and a game like that sits comfortably where we want it. The warning is Alverca's own ground. They have tied 3 of their last 6 games there, and their home games have averaged 3 goals. That is busier than anything else in this game, but we still expect a quiet night.

💬 Both of these teams keep games small, and that is what this pick is built on. Arouca have been strong at home, winning 5 of their last 7 there, and they let in just a goal a game at that ground. They win at that ground by keeping the other side quiet, and they have tied only once in their last 15 games. Maritimo bring the bigger problem for the goals column. They score just a goal a game across their last 7 road trips. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14. Their unbeaten start is real, so they will not be swept aside, but they carry very little threat away from home. The last 12 meetings have split 5 wins for Arouca, 3 ties and 4 for Maritimo, so neither side has taken charge of this one in years. That points to a 1-0 Arouca win decided by a single moment, which is exactly the kind of game we want. The honest worry is that both teams have been in busier games than those habits suggest. 9 of Arouca's last 15 and 8 of Maritimo's last 14 finished with 3 or more goals. One early goal would change the shape of the night, but the tight, low count game is still the better read.

💬 Lens are the form team in France right now, and that is the reason we are on them. They have won 10 of their last 16 games and beat PSG 1-0 in the Trophee des Champions. They then opened the league with a 5-2 win over Auxerre. Strasbourg are nowhere near that shape. They have won 6 of their last 14 and let in almost 2 goals a game across that run. Marseille beat them 4-0 last time out. They are also without Junior Panichelli, and Samir El Mourabet is suspended, so a struggling attack loses its main man. Lens score more than 2 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Strasbourg cannot match that kind of finishing at the moment. Games at the Meinau are open too. Strasbourg's last 7 home games have brought almost 2 goals at each end. All of that points to a 1-2 Lens win, and an away win by a single goal is exactly what we are backing. Two things give us pause. This game is usually cagey, and the last four meetings finished 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 and 2-2. Lens have also won 2, tied 2 and lost 2 away from home, with injury problems of their own to work around. We still think Lens have too much in the final third.

💬 Fiorentina do not win games by much, and right now they can barely score. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games, and they score 1 goal a game. Moise Kean is not in the squad, with Como trying to sign him, and Sottil and Parisi are out too. Their last game was a 0-4 beating at Roma. What Fiorentina do have is their home ground. They have not lost there in this run, 3 wins and 4 ties, letting in under a goal a game. Frosinone come in on a strong run of their own. They have won 9 and lost only 1 of their last 15, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once in that time. The catch is where those games came from. Most were in the second tier, and their one top flight game this season was a 0-1 home loss to Juventus in which they barely threatened. The six previous meetings between these sides averaged under 3 goals, so expect a slow afternoon with few clear chances. A 1-0 Fiorentina win is the most likely single score, and this pick wants more than that from Frosinone. A Fiorentina without their main scorer gives them a real chance to get it, and that is why we are on them.

💬 There is next to nothing between these two teams, and that is why the home side is worth backing. Udinese travel short of players. Kabasele is suspended after a red card, and Zaniolo, Zanoli and Palma are all out, with two more in doubt. Udinese are also a careful, low key team. They score just over a goal a game and let in under one, and only 3 of their last 13 games reached 3 goals. That kind of game suits Monza. The hosts have won 7 and tied 5 of their last 16, and at their own ground they have won 5, tied 2 and lost once. Be careful with those home numbers. Most of them come from the second tier, and Monza's one Serie A game this season was a 1-4 defeat at Inter. Udinese also made plenty of chances in their 1-1 opener with Como, so they will have their spells here. The seven previous meetings averaged under 3 goals and three of them were tied. A 1-1 tie is the most likely finish, and this pick is built around Monza staying level or better. The doubt is Monza's true level, because one trip to Inter is all we have seen of them at this height. They are hard to beat at their own ground, and we think that holds up here.

💬 Neither defence here can be trusted. Newcastle let in almost 2 goals a game, and on their travels they have let in more than 2 a game across six trips. Tottenham let in almost 2 a game as well. Two leaky back lines usually add up to goals. Tottenham's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 8 of their last 13 had 3 or more. At home they score 2 goals a game. Newcastle tell the same story. Their games average more than 3 goals, 8 of their last 13 reached 3, and Liverpool cut them open again and again in a 2-2 tie. Both squads are patched up too. Spurs are without Kulusevski, Xavi Simons, Odobert and Maddison, and Newcastle are missing Dan Burn, Joelinton and Osula. Both sides also played cup ties only 3 days ago, so legs will be heavy. The history matches the theme, because the last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. A 2-1 Tottenham win is the most likely finish, and this pick is built on the open, ragged game that produces it. The risk is rotation and a thin Spurs attack. If Tottenham rest more players and sit in, this can turn into a flat, low scoring night. We still want the goals here.

💬 Dortmund should win this game, but they rarely win it big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games. Hamburg have lost by 2 or more in just 2 of theirs. That is the heart of this pick. Dortmund score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, and their defence is short of bodies. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with an ankle problem and Emre Can is out with a knee injury. Ramy Bensebaini has a rib problem and is doubtful, so three of the usual back line may be missing. At home they have won 4 and lost 3 in this run. Hamburg arrive playing well. They have won 5 and tied 4 of their last 15, and they won 3-0 at Verl in the cup. These two also tend to make a game of it. The last 18 meetings averaged almost 4 goals, and the two most recent finished 1-1 and 3-2. A 2-1 Dortmund win is the most likely finish, and a one goal game is the shape this pick is built around. The risk is the calendar. This is the first league game of the season for both sides, so nobody knows who is ready. An early second goal for Dortmund would change everything. We still want Hamburg to stay in touch.

💬 When AZ win, they win big. All 7 of their wins in this run came by 2 goals or more, and there is not a single one goal win among them. That is why we are happy to ask them to win by a clear margin. AZ are the form team in the country. They have won 7 and lost only 1 of their last 13. They top the league with nine points from three games, and they beat PSV 4-0 in the Super Cup. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in 1 goal a game. Over their last three matches they have made a stack of chances and given up almost nothing. GO Ahead Eagles are a good team, but they are a different one on the road. Away from home they have won once, tied three and lost two. They score 1 goal a game on their travels, against 3 a game at their own ground. They also travel without Nauber, Saathof and Weijenberg. AZ have won 11 of the last 17 meetings between the two. A 2-0 AZ win is the most likely finish, and it does the job here. The warning is the other half of that big win habit. AZ have tied 5 of their last 13, and the last two games with GO Ahead ended 0-0 and 2-2. We still expect AZ to have far too much.

💬 Real Sociedad are in real trouble, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won just 1 of their last 13 games and sit bottom of La Liga with no points from two. They have let in 5 goals across their last two, including a 1-4 beating at Real Madrid. Sociedad let in 2 goals a game over that 13 game run, so a head start against them is worth having. Espanyol are far from perfect. They have won 3 of their last 14 and score a goal a game, and on the road they have won once in six. Their attack is picked apart too, with Puado, Zaragoza and Kike Garcia hurt and Cabrera suspended. They do arrive in better form, with three wins in their last five, and they have had 7 days to rest against Sociedad's 3. Anoeta should be tense rather than open, with a nervous home side pushing and a visiting team happy to sit in. A 1-1 is the likely finish, and that is the sort of night we want. The risk is history and desperation. Sociedad have won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these two. A crowd desperate for a first win can drag a poor side through one game. With that forward line missing, Espanyol may not have a goal in them. We still think Sociedad are too fragile to win this properly.

💬 Porto have started this season perfectly and they have not let in a goal doing it. They have won all four games so far, 2-0 against Arouca, 2-0 at Rio Ave, 2-0 against Alverca and 1-0 in the Super Cup. That run is the reason we want them. Porto have won 13 of their last 18 and arrive on five straight wins, letting in under a goal a game. Viseu are honest and well organised. They have won 8 of their last 18 and let in under a goal a game themselves. Almost all of that was built in the second tier, against Vizela, Farense and Feirense, not against attacks like this one. Viseu are in the top flight for the first time in 37 years, and Santa Clara have already beaten them on their own ground. Viseu have also lost four of the last five meetings with Porto. Porto should take the lead before half time and then control the rest, so a 0-2 finish looks the likely result. That is exactly the game we are backing. The worry is that Viseu are hard to beat badly. They have lost by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 18 games, and they tied at Benfica and Maritimo this month. Porto still look a level above, and we expect them to show it.

💬 Parma give you almost nothing, and this pick rests on that. Only 2 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals. They score less than a goal a game, and on the road it is thinner still. Parma have two wins, two ties and three losses from seven away trips, and they will sit deep and make Juventus work the ball around them. Juventus are built to win this the slow way. They have lost only 1 of their last 14, but they have won by 2 or more in just 3 of those games. Their own matches are quiet too, with 3 or more goals in only 4 of their last 14. They also lose Kenan Yildiz, who needs surgery on a foot injury and faces two to three months out, with Gatti and Ekhator both doubtful as well. That is their best creator gone against a side that will not come out. Juventus created plenty in their 1-0 win at Frosinone and still scored only once. Expect the same picture here. A 1-0 to Juventus is the likely finish, the goal arriving from steady pressure rather than a shootout. The one worry is history. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged 3 goals, and Parma have already won 1-0 in Turin and tied 2-2 there. We are still happy on the quiet side of this one.

💬 Toulouse have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 17 games, and they now visit the one ground where Brest come alive. Brest score 2 goals a game across their six home games. Away from home they barely score, under a goal a game, so this is the venue that matters. They opened with a 2-2 tie at Le Mans and made far more chances than that score showed. Toulouse have won just 2 of their last 10 away games and let in 2 goals a game on those trips. Brest are also without defenders Chardonnet and Bourgault, so the back line is patched up in a game where both teams look soft. A 2-1 Brest win looks the most likely finish, and that is exactly the kind of game we want. The hosts should make plenty of openings, and Toulouse have the attack to answer at least once. The honest worry is the history between them. Those 16 meetings averaged under 3 goals in total, and only about a third of them had 3 or more. Toulouse have also won the last two visits here, both 2-0, so they know how to keep this quiet. Two shaky defences still point the other way, and we want the goals.

💬 Lorient tie games, and that is the simplest reason we are with Troyes. Lorient have tied 7 of their last 14, including 3 of their 7 at home, and they opened the season with a 0-0 at Nice. They have won by 2 or more in just 2 of those 14 games, so they rarely blow anyone away. They score more than a goal a game and let in about the same. Troyes come up with a strong record, 8 wins from their last 14, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in under one. There is a catch and we will name it. Most of that was built in the second tier, against Laval, Saint Etienne and Dunkerque. Their one game in the top flight was a 0-0 with Paris FC in which they created next to nothing. What Troyes do have is stubbornness. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 14 games. Both sides have had a full week to prepare, and this has the feel of a tight, even game at the Moustoir. A 1-1 is the likely finish and that suits us well. The risk is real. Troyes carry doubts over Boura, Fatah and Titi, and a side with one top flight game behind them can look out of its depth quickly. We are still backing Troyes to stay with them.

💬 Le Havre are hard to beat by much, and that is the case for taking them with a head start. They have lost by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 13 games, and they have tied 6 of those 13. They score less than a goal a game, so they are not winning this, but they sit deep and keep games narrow. The last meeting between these two finished 0-0. Lyon should be the better team. They won 2-0 at Toulouse to open the league and have won 6 of their last 14. But they arrive flat. Lyon lost 1-2 at home to Fenerbahce in midweek and went out of the Champions League play-off, and they were second best all night. They have had only 3 days to recover, against 6 for Le Havre. Lyon also let in more than a goal a game at their own ground, so they do not shut the door often. Four Le Havre players are out, including Zagadou and Ablie Toure, which thins an already blunt attack. The likely finish is a 1-0 to Lyon, a laboured win rather than the big reaction the crowd wants. A one goal Lyon win still leaves us in good shape. The danger is that Lyon's home form is all or nothing, 4 wins and 4 losses with no ties. If they score early this can get away from us. We think Le Havre keep it close enough.

💬 Zwolle almost never score more than one goal at their own ground, and that alone keeps this game small. They score under a goal a game at home and have tied 3 of their last 8 there. Their attack has been quiet all year, with just over a goal a game across their last 16. NEC are the better side on paper, but they arrive in poor shape. They played a Champions League tie at Bodo/Glimt on 25 August and lost 0-3. That leaves them four days of rest to Zwolle's seven, and they are without five players, including centre-backs Schuurs and Sandler. A tired, patched-up team against a home side who sit deep points to a slow, low-quality night. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely finish, and a game like that sits comfortably inside what we want. Neither attack looks good enough to run away with it. The risk is the history. The last 18 meetings between these two averaged just over 3 goals, and open games have been the norm in this matchup. NEC missing both centre-backs could also let Zwolle in more often than their scoring record suggests. We still think tired legs and blunt attacks win out, so the quiet game is where we stand.

💬 Atletico arrive with their back line pulled apart. Le Normand is suspended after a red card, which pushes Marc Pubill into the middle of the defence for a hard night. Sevilla have won 4 of their last 6 home games and let in 1 goal a game there. They have also not tied a single one of their last 13 games, so their nights tend to have a winner. Atletico have taken 4 points from their first two games. They were second best for chances in both, and they let in more than a goal a game across their last 16. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games. Atletico are also without both main strikers. Sorloth is injured and Julian Alvarez has been left out of the squad over a possible transfer, so Simeone has to build a new front pair. The most likely single score is a 1-1 tie, and that is not enough for us. We need a third goal, and a patched Atletico defence against a Sevilla side who keep winning at home is how it turns up. The clear risk is that these two have often been tight. Only 8 of the last 20 meetings had 3 or more goals, and Atletico are happy to slow a game down. The missing players still tip this towards goals for us.