Tips — Friday, 28 August 2026

💬 Bayern win most games, but they do not often win them by a landslide. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 15, and that is the case for keeping Stuttgart close. Bayern are strong at the Allianz Arena. They have won 12 of their last 15 games and score just over 3 goals a game, so the lead should come early. They are also without Musiala, Gnabry and Buchmann, which takes some finishing power out of the second half. Stuttgart are not coming here just to defend. They score 2 goals a game and have scored in each of their last five league games. Their away games are open at both ends, so they will get their chances on the break. The last 20 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals, and both teams tend to score in this one. Our read is a 3-1 Bayern win. That is the sort of night this pick is built for, because Stuttgart get on the scoresheet and the margin stays small. The worry is the treatment room. Stuttgart have eight players ruled out, four of them defenders, and they have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 14. This is also the first league game of the season, so there is no form to lean on. We still think Bayern win without pulling away.

💬 Bohemians are much the better team here, but they do not often win by a landslide. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 20 games, so the margin often stays small. That is what this pick lives on. Bohemians are strong at Dalymount Park, with 6 wins from 10 there, scoring 2 goals and letting in more than a goal a game. They sit 3rd on 47 points. Sligo are 10th on 23 points and in the relegation place, so nobody is pretending this is even. What Sligo do well is keep games tight and low. They have tied 6 of their last 19 games, and their recent league results read 0-0, 0-2 and 1-1. They score a goal a game on the road, which is enough to stay in touch. The last 20 meetings have averaged under 3 goals in total. Our read is a 2-1 home win, and that is a good night for us, because Sligo lose by a single goal. The honest worry is that Sligo have been beaten by 2 or more in 5 of their last 19 games. Bohemians also won their last league game 5-3, and their games average just over 3 goals, so this can open up fast. We still want Sligo to keep the margin down.

💬 These two cannot be separated, and that is the whole point of this pick. Nine of the last 20 meetings ended level, and the last five read 1-1, 1-1, 0-1, 1-1 and 2-2. Galway need only to avoid defeat. Galway tied four in a row before last week's 2-1 win at Dundalk: 1-1 with Bray Wanderers, 0-0 with Drogheda, 1-1 with Bohemians and 0-0 with Waterford. They are not scoring freely, but they are hard to beat, and they have tied 8 of their last 20 games. Shelbourne have the same problem in reverse. They have won one of their last nine away games and score just over a goal a trip. They have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 18, so a heavy away win is not their style. Shelbourne have also lost four of their last five. The table says the same thing. Shelbourne sit 5th on 34 points and Galway 7th on 33, which is nothing at all. Our read is a 1-1, and that works for us. The one thing that could change it is rest. Shelbourne have had 15 days off to Galway's 7, so they may come back fresher and quicker in a game this tight. We still think Galway hold them.

💬 St Patrick's have a title race to keep alive, and Richmond Park is where they do their best work. They sit second on 50 points, four behind Shamrock Rovers, who also hold a game in hand. Only wins are any use now. At home they have won 7 of their 10 games, scoring just over 2 goals a game and letting in under one. Across all games they have won 10, tied 6 and lost 3 of their last 19, and 7 of those wins came by 2 or more goals. Waterford are the awkward part. They have won 2, tied 3 and lost 4 on the road, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in almost 2. Their last two away league games both finished 0-0, so they will sit deep and try to make this slow. That suits a patient home side. Expect St Patrick's to lead by the hour, and expect a second goal once Waterford have to come out. A 2-0 home win is the most likely score, and that is the clear win we need. The warning is a fair one. Waterford have not lost in five and they tied 1-1 with St Patrick's in July. If they are still level after an hour, a 1-0 does not get the job done. We still think the better side wins this comfortably.

💬 Milan do not win big, and that is the case here. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 16 games, and they score just over a goal a game. Their home record in that run is poor too, with 2 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses at San Siro. Fofana and Tomori are out, and Leao and Gimenez are both doubtful, so the attack may be short of its two best finishers. Venezia are the sort of side that makes that a problem. They were unbeaten in six away games, letting in less than a goal a game, and they have lost once in their last 15. They defend deep, keep the game slow and are happy to take a point. Our read is a 2-0 Milan win, and we will be straight with you: that beats this pick. We need Venezia to get on the scoresheet, or to hold Milan to one goal. Milan have been blunt all year, so both of those look live. The risk is the history. Milan have won the last four meetings 2-0, 4-0, 3-0 and 2-0, so they have a habit of doing this in comfort. Venezia's strong record also came in a lower division, and their one game at this level was a 0-2 home loss to Lecce. We are still with Venezia to keep it tight.

💬 PSG have owned this game. They have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, and Lille have beaten them just 3 times in that run. That is the case for backing PSG to win it again. Lille are a hard team to break down. They let in less than a goal a game, and only 4 of their last 15 games have reached 3 goals. The problem is at the other end. Lille barely score at home, at under a goal a game there, and they have lost twice in their last seven at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. PSG score just over 2 goals a game and have not lost by 2 or more in their last 18. One clean chance usually does it for them. Now the honest part. Our read is a 1-1 tie, and a tie is no good to us here. We need PSG to find a winner, and they have done that in this game far more often than not. The worry is who plays. Dembele has been rested, Barcola and Mbaye are out amid unresolved transfers, and Mendes is suspended, so this is a patched-up front line. Lille will sit deep and wait for exactly that. We still want PSG to win it, but this one is closer than the names suggest.

💬 The Louth derby is a grind, and neither of these teams looks ready to change that. The last 18 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals a game, and three of the last five finished 1-1 or 0-0. Drogheda have tied three of their last four league games, two of them goalless, against Shamrock Rovers and at Galway United. At home they have won 3, tied 4 and lost 2, letting in just over a goal a game. That is better than their overall record. They are not making many chances either. Dundalk look busier on paper, but that is misleading. Their scoring average is lifted by an 8-0 cup win over junior side Castlebar Celtic on 15 August. In the league they have taken two points from their last five games. They sit fourth, and that place flatters them. So we have a home side who cannot create and an away side who have stopped scoring, in a game that has always been low on goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and a night like that is exactly what we are backing. The risk is one early goal changing how both teams play. Drogheda's run of ties also hides how many chances they give up, so goals against them would be no shock. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Manchester City rarely win big at the moment, and that is the whole case for Palace. City have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 17 games. Just 2 of those 17 games produced four or more goals. They win, but they win small. Palace are built to make that hard work. At Selhurst Park they have won 4, tied 2 and lost 2, letting in just over a goal a game, better than their record across all games. They will sit deep and hand City the ball. The trouble is at the other end. Ismaila Sarr is still not fit and Chadi Riad has no return date after the knee injury at Everton. Palace score just over a goal a game, so chances will be rare. City have their own gaps. Jeremy Doku is out for two to three weeks and Matheus Nunes is still being checked. Rayan Cherki is in good form after two assists on the opening weekend. The most likely single score is a 1-0 City win. That is the type of tight game we want, but we need Palace to take something from it. The risk is an early City goal. Palace have lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 16 games, and they have lost 12 of the last 20 meetings. We still want Palace to keep this close, and we think they will.

💬 Birmingham are hard to beat, and that is what this pick rests on. They have lost by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 15 games. Wrexham have not beaten them in the last four meetings, tying two and losing two. On the road Birmingham are stubborn and dull in equal measure. Across seven away games they score under a goal a game and let in under a goal a game. Gardner-Hickman and Leonard are out, so they will not suddenly turn into a threat. Wrexham are struggling as well. They have not won in their last five, and they have won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 18 games. At the Racecourse they let in almost 2 goals a game. Revan is out, and Cacace, Sheaf and Windass are all doubtful, so the home attack is patched up. Both clubs have tied both of their league games and sit level on two points. Neither one can put a game to bed. A 1-1 is the most likely score here, and a tie is a good result for us. The worry is Birmingham's legs. They have three days' rest to Wrexham's six after a 1-6 home beating by Brentford in the cup, so changes are likely. Wrexham will also see more of the ball at home. Even so, we want Birmingham to leave with something.

💬 Sporting Gijon come into this playing well, and that is the reason to take them. They have won four of their last five games. Across the last 15 they have won 7, tied 2 and lost 6, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in just over one. Tenerife's record looks strong, but it needs context. Eight of their last 14 games were third tier games, so the low number of goals they let in came against weaker teams. They also beat Almeria against the run of play. The head to head is dead level. In 16 meetings Tenerife have won 6, tied 4 and lost 6, and those games have averaged just over 2 goals. Games that tight turn on one moment, and Gijon only need one. Here is the honest part. The most likely single score is a 1-0 Tenerife win, which does not do the job, so Gijon have to avoid defeat. There are two real worries. Gijon are without Andres Ferrari, Mamadou Loum, Hugo Guillamon and Gaspar Campos, which is a lot of first team missing. Their road record is poor too, two wins in seven away games, and Tenerife have not lost at home. This is a close call. We are still with Gijon to come away from here with something.

💬 Villarreal keep tying games away from home, and that shapes this one. Five of their last ten road games ended level, at just over a goal scored and just over a goal let in. Both of their league games this season finished 2-2. Alaves are in decent shape. They sit fifth, they have let in one goal in two league games, and they put three past Getafe. They have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 16 games, so heavy defeats are not their habit. They also have eight days' rest to Villarreal's five, which tells in the last twenty minutes. Both teams are patched up at the back. Alaves are without the suspended Facundo Garces and cannot call on Lucas Boye. Villarreal are missing Copete and Diego Lopez, with Gerard Moreno in doubt. These two tend to give each other chances, and their meetings have averaged just over 3 goals a game. That should get Alaves on the board. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and a tie is a good result for us. The caution here is squad quality. Villarreal have won by 2 or more in 4 of their last 16 games, and a makeshift Alaves back line could crack early. We still want Alaves, fresher and at home, to stay in this one.