FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 — Tips & Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 +1: Paderborn have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. They are hard to beat by a distance, and that is the whole case here. Mainz look strong on paper, but the scoring number flatters them. It is propped up by a 9-0 cup win over amateur side Krieschow. Take that out and they score a bit more than a goal a game. They are also without Silas, Martel and Nebel, so the attack is thinner than it looks. At home Mainz have won 3 and lost 3 of their last six games, letting in more than a goal a game there. Paderborn come in on a strong run. They lost only 1 of their last 9 away games, winning 4 and tying 4, and they let in just over a goal a game on the road. A 2-1 Mainz win looks the most likely finish, and that is not quite enough for a clear win. Paderborn need to take something from the game, and a Mainz attack missing three players hands them that chance. The honest risk is the step up. Paderborn are newly promoted and built most of that record in the second tier against weaker teams. They are also missing Michel, Gayret and Awortwie-Grant. We still expect them to stay close here.