Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.25: Atletico arrive with their back line pulled apart. Le Normand is suspended after a red card, which pushes Marc Pubill into the middle of the defence for a hard night. Sevilla have won 4 of their last 6 home games and let in 1 goal a game there. They have also not tied a single one of their last 13 games, so their nights tend to have a winner. Atletico have taken 4 points from their first two games. They were second best for chances in both, and they let in more than a goal a game across their last 16. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games. Atletico are also without both main strikers. Sorloth is injured and Julian Alvarez has been left out of the squad over a possible transfer, so Simeone has to build a new front pair. The most likely single score is a 1-1 tie, and that is not enough for us. We need a third goal, and a patched Atletico defence against a Sevilla side who keep winning at home is how it turns up. The clear risk is that these two have often been tight. Only 8 of the last 20 meetings had 3 or more goals, and Atletico are happy to slow a game down. The missing players still tip this towards goals for us.