Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — Tips & Analysis

Hamburger SV +1.75: Dortmund should win this game, but they rarely win it big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games. Hamburg have lost by 2 or more in just 2 of theirs. That is the heart of this pick. Dortmund score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, and their defence is short of bodies. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with an ankle problem and Emre Can is out with a knee injury. Ramy Bensebaini has a rib problem and is doubtful, so three of the usual back line may be missing. At home they have won 4 and lost 3 in this run. Hamburg arrive playing well. They have won 5 and tied 4 of their last 15, and they won 3-0 at Verl in the cup. These two also tend to make a game of it. The last 18 meetings averaged almost 4 goals, and the two most recent finished 1-1 and 3-2. A 2-1 Dortmund win is the most likely finish, and a one goal game is the shape this pick is built around. The risk is the calendar. This is the first league game of the season for both sides, so nobody knows who is ready. An early second goal for Dortmund would change everything. We still want Hamburg to stay in touch.