Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: This Rotterdam derby has been loud for years, and that history is the case for goals here. The last 11 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals a game, with 3-2, 2-4 and 1-4 among the recent results. Excelsior play their part in that. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 10 of their last 15 finished with 3 or more. Sparta are the softer of the two. They have won 1 of their last 7 away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14. They do not just lose these games, they get pulled apart in them. Neither back four looks able to slow this down, and these two rarely turn the derby into an arm wrestle. We should be straight about the likely finish. A 2-1 home win is the single most likely score, and this pick needs the game to run past that. Against two defences that leak every week that is a fair ask. The risk is the version where Excelsior sit deep and the game dies at 1-1. That is why this is a measured call rather than a strong one, but we still want the busy game.