RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Tips & Analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.25: Leipzig do not win big, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 4 of their last 14 games. Gladbach have been just as hard to beat by a distance, losing by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. Leipzig are the better team. They have won 9 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game. They also let in more than a goal a game, so their games rarely turn into one way traffic. Gladbach score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. They have won 5 and tied 4 of their last 13, and they carry a real threat on the break. This matchup has been a grind for years. The last five meetings produced just four goals in total: 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-0. Across the last 20 games between them the average was under 3 goals. Leipzig are also without Baumgartner and Ouedraogo, which takes something off the attack. A 2-1 Leipzig win looks the most likely finish, and a one goal game is the shape this pick is built around. The worry is Gladbach on the road. They won 1 and lost 4 of their 7 away games in this run, so a bad night is possible. We still expect Gladbach to keep this close.