Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.25: Toulouse have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 17 games, and they now visit the one ground where Brest come alive. Brest score 2 goals a game across their six home games. Away from home they barely score, under a goal a game, so this is the venue that matters. They opened with a 2-2 tie at Le Mans and made far more chances than that score showed. Toulouse have won just 2 of their last 10 away games and let in 2 goals a game on those trips. Brest are also without defenders Chardonnet and Bourgault, so the back line is patched up in a game where both teams look soft. A 2-1 Brest win looks the most likely finish, and that is exactly the kind of game we want. The hosts should make plenty of openings, and Toulouse have the attack to answer at least once. The honest worry is the history between them. Those 16 meetings averaged under 3 goals in total, and only about a third of them had 3 or more. Toulouse have also won the last two visits here, both 2-0, so they know how to keep this quiet. Two shaky defences still point the other way, and we want the goals.