1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: Köln have had 3 or more goals in 13 of their last 17 games. Their games are busy because they defend loosely and still score. At home they let in almost 2 goals a game across their last eight there, and they score just over a goal a game overall. They were second best for chances in their cup win at fourth-tier Würzburger Kickers, and they are missing Hübers and Sebulonsen. Hoffenheim look the stronger side and they travel well. They scored 2 goals a game across their last seven away games, and 11 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. They are without Lemperle, who is suspended, but there is plenty left in that attack. The history matches up too. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and about 2 in 3 of them had 3 or more. A 1-2 Hoffenheim win looks the most likely finish, and that is not quite enough on its own. We want a fourth goal, and two open defences on the first weekend of the season is how it usually arrives. The risk is the calendar. This is the opening Bundesliga game for both teams, with new signings and line-ups that have not played together. Openers can turn cagey. We still want the busy game here.