PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Zwolle almost never score more than one goal at their own ground, and that alone keeps this game small. They score under a goal a game at home and have tied 3 of their last 8 there. Their attack has been quiet all year, with just over a goal a game across their last 16. NEC are the better side on paper, but they arrive in poor shape. They played a Champions League tie at Bodo/Glimt on 25 August and lost 0-3. That leaves them four days of rest to Zwolle's seven, and they are without five players, including centre-backs Schuurs and Sandler. A tired, patched-up team against a home side who sit deep points to a slow, low-quality night. A 1-1 tie looks the most likely finish, and a game like that sits comfortably inside what we want. Neither attack looks good enough to run away with it. The risk is the history. The last 18 meetings between these two averaged just over 3 goals, and open games have been the norm in this matchup. NEC missing both centre-backs could also let Zwolle in more often than their scoring record suggests. We still think tired legs and blunt attacks win out, so the quiet game is where we stand.