Tips — Sunday, 30 August 2026

💬 PSV are involved in almost every high scoring game in this league, and that is why we want goals here. Their games have averaged more than 4 goals in total, and 14 of their last 15 have had 3 or more. They score almost 3 goals a game and they put five past Groningen last week. They also let in almost 2 a game, so they do not shut games down. Utrecht are perfect opponents for that. They have let in a goal in every league game so far, losing 1-4 at home to AZ and 1-2 at Groningen after a 3-3 at Sparta. They score almost 2 goals a game themselves, so they will not sit back and die quietly. Eight of their players are unavailable, including Ohio, Jensen and Engwanda, which makes their defence even harder to hold together. The history is loud too. The last 19 meetings have averaged 4 goals, and the last five ended 3-4, 1-2, 2-2, 2-5 and 1-1. A 1-3 PSV win is the read, and four goals clears this comfortably. The catch is Utrecht at Galgenwaard, where they have been much harder to beat than their overall record suggests. PSV can also go flat, as their 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard showed. We still expect an open game with goals at both ends.

💬 Rangers arrive in poor shape and that is the base of this one. They played away in Europe at Jablonec on Thursday and have had only three days off. Aberdeen have not played for over two weeks. Rangers have also taken one point from two league games, losing 1-2 at home to Hibernian and tying 1-1 at Dundee United. A tired side low on confidence rarely blows anyone away. Aberdeen are hard to break down. They have won 9 of their last 16 and let in just over a goal a game, and their games have averaged under 3 goals. They are missing Kusini Yengi, Mats Knoester and Kristers Tobers, so they will defend first and take what comes. Rangers do score more than 2 goals a game, but they have won only 7 of their last 17. The meetings here have averaged 3 goals across the last 20, and this one looks tighter than most. A 1-1 is the read, with one goal at each end and few clear chances after the break. The danger is clear. Rangers have won 13 of the last 20 games between these two, and recent meetings ended 1-4, 0-2, 0-2 and 0-4. If Rangers click early, this gets away from us fast. We still think tired legs and a careful Aberdeen keep the goals down.

💬 Two struggling sides who tie more games than they win, and that points to a careful, low scoring night. Darmstadt sit in the bottom two after two rounds, on one point. They score just over a goal a game and have won only 3 of their last 15, tying 5 of them. Darmstadt have also created almost nothing in their last two games. Hannover are bottom with no points at all and one league goal to their name. Their scoring number looks fine at 2 goals a game, but a 9-1 cup win over an amateur side is doing the heavy lifting there. In the league they lost 0-1 to Wolfsburg and 1-3 at Cottbus. Hannover have tied 7 of their last 16, so the tie is their most common result. Both teams have had a full week off, and neither can afford to lose this one. Nervous games between worried teams tend to stay quiet. A 1-1 is the read here, and a game with two goals is exactly what we want. The honest worry is history. The last 15 meetings between these two averaged more than 3 goals, and 8 of Darmstadt's last 15 games have had 3 or more. Darmstadt let in more than a goal a game, so one loose spell would change this. We still want the tight, low scoring game.

💬 These two rarely pull apart from each other. In the last 13 meetings Magdeburg have won 4, tied 6 and lost 3, and the last five ended 3-1, 3-3, 1-1, 3-3 and 4-2. Kiel keep coming out of this game with something. Magdeburg are hard to trust. They have won 8 and lost 8 of their last 17, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. Three weeks ago they were beaten 1-6 at home by Eintracht Braunschweig, so their defence can fall apart without warning. Kiel are the steadier side right now. They have lost only 4 of their last 13 games and let in just over a goal a game. Both league games have finished 2-2, at Darmstadt and at home to St. Pauli, so they can trade goals with anyone. Kiel have had an extra day of rest as well. Add it up and this looks like another even game, with a 2-2 the most likely finish, and that result suits us. The worry is Kiel's attack. They are without Steven Skrzybski, Giorgi Kvilitaia and Moritz Reimers, so goals may be harder to find than usual. Magdeburg have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 17, so a big home win is not a shock. Even so, Kiel are the side we want in a game that keeps ending level.

💬 St. Pauli cannot score, and that is why we are with Kaiserslautern. St. Pauli have won just 1 of their last 14 games and score under a goal a game. They have not won any of their last seven home games either. They have not won a game by 2 or more goals in those 14, so a heavy home win would be out of character. Kaiserslautern have been quietly solid. They are unbeaten in five and have not let in a goal in their last three games. Their season so far reads 0-0 at Wolfsburg, 0-0 at home to Karlsruher SC and a 1-0 cup win at Waldhof Mannheim. They let in a goal a game and their games average just over 2 goals in total. Nothing about them suggests they get run over here. They also come in with two extra days of rest. Put those two sides together and you get a slow, tight game with very few clear chances. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that result does the job for us. The honest worry is history. St. Pauli have won 10 of the last 18 meetings between these two, and they have been making chances lately without taking them. If one of those finally goes in early, the game changes. We still back Kaiserslautern to stay in it.

💬 This derby has a long habit of staying tight. The last 20 meetings averaged under 3 goals, and the last five ended 2-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-2. Hammarby are the better team here and they are also the more careful one. They have won 10 of their last 19 games and let in less than a goal a game. They are a different side on the road, where they have been far less dominant. AIK have been winning without playing well. They have won 9 of their last 18 and score more than a goal a game, but they have been badly outplayed in recent weeks. Their squad is stretched too, with Ayari, Cisse, Kouame and several others unavailable. Hammarby come in on four days rest after a cup tie, so heavy legs and changes are likely. None of that points to an open, end to end derby. A 1-2 to Hammarby is the read. That is a low scoring game, but it leaves us little room, so we need it to stay tight. The warning is that AIK's games have not been quiet ones. Twelve of their last 18 had 3 or more goals, and Hammarby have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 19. If Hammarby get on top early, the goals could come. We still expect a tight derby.

💬 Feyenoord control games without running up big scores, and that is the case for a quiet total here. They have lost only 1 of their last 15 games, but they have won by 2 or more goals in just 3 of them. Six of those 15 ended in ties. They score under 2 goals a game and let in just over one. This is a side that goes ahead and then manages the game. ADO have come up from the second division and have lost all three of their league games, 1-3, 1-4 and 0-2. Their strong overall record was built a level below, so the wins in it count for less than they look. They will sit deep in Rotterdam and try to keep the score down, which is close to the limit of their ambition. Feyenoord are missing five players, including Beelen with a broken leg. Both sides have had a week off. A 2-0 home win is the read, and two goals is well short of what would beat us. The risk is that this turns into a rout. Feyenoord scored five at Cambuur last week, and the meetings between these two have averaged more than 3 goals. ADO have already let in nine goals in three league games. We still think Feyenoord win this without a goal rush.

💬 Willem II have been taken apart since coming up, and that is the case for backing Heerenveen. Willem II have lost both of their league games 1-4 and sit 16th with no points. Their record of 10 wins in 15 was built mostly in the division below, so it flatters them badly. They are also without first choice goalkeeper Didillon Hodl, along with Culum, Lachkar, Schuurman and Zarrouk. That is a lot of the spine of a team already letting in goals in bunches. Heerenveen are far from convincing themselves. They have scored only three goals in three league games and have won 7 of their last 15. What they do have is a hold over this opponent. Heerenveen have won 10 of the last 19 meetings between the two, including the last two, 3-1 and 2-1. Willem II have had 15 days without a game, so they should start with fresh legs and may well get a goal. A 1-2 away win is how this reads, and we only need Heerenveen to come out on top. The caution here is real. Heerenveen have been much weaker away from home, and they let in more than a goal a game. Willem II score more than a goal a game and will be at it early. We still make Heerenveen the side with enough in this one.

💬 Paris FC have turned Stade Jean Bouin into an awkward trip, and that is the main reason we are with them. They have won 5 of their 7 home games there, scoring 2 goals a game. They opened the season with a 0-0 at Troyes where they made the better chances and could not finish one. Nice come in with almost nothing going forward. They score less than a goal a game across their last 15, and they have won only 3 of those. Their midfield has been picked apart too, with Abergel, Sanson and Abdi all missing. That points to an away plan built on keeping the score down rather than winning the game. The last two meetings ended 1-0 and 1-1, so neither side has run away with this one lately. Expect Paris FC to control the ball, get the opener and add a second late for a 2-0 win. The warning is real though. Nice tie a lot of games. 7 of their last 15 ended level, and a stubborn away side can drag this into a long, tense night. Paris FC are also missing Ikone, Koleosho, Mbemba and Sangui, so their attack is short of bodies. We still think the home side are stronger in the areas that decide this game.

💬 Brighton have owned this game lately, and that is where we start. They have won the last four meetings, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0 and 2-1. Chelsea have not beaten them in any of those. Chelsea's wider run is poor as well. They have won only 5 of their last 14 games and lost 8, and they have won by 2 or more goals just twice in that run. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than that. Both first choice midfielders are in doubt, with Caicedo not certain to be fit and Enzo Fernandez perhaps not starting. Brighton have won 9 of their last 16 games and let in less than a goal a game. Both teams played three days ago, so tired legs and changes are likely on each side. That is the sort of night that finishes level rather than open. A 1-1 is the read, and a share of the points does the job for us. The catch is Brighton's attack. Mitoma, Minteh and Ferguson are all out, and Brighton score only a goal a game on the road. Chelsea won 3-2 at Fulham and can hurt anyone on their day. We still want Brighton with the head start.

💬 These two cancel each other out more than almost any pair in the division. The last 18 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and only about one in five of them went past 2 goals. Eight of the 18 ended in ties, and recent meetings have finished 0-0 and 1-1. Leeds are built to keep it that way right now. They let in less than a goal a game and have won 4 of their last 5. Their games have averaged under 3 goals in total. They are missing Gruev and Joseph, which does not help them open a stubborn team up. Brentford are awkward visitors. They have tied 9 of their last 18 games, more than they have won, and they lost only 3. That is a side happy to take a point and hard to break down. Both teams have had 5 days off, so expect a physical game decided by one moment. A 1-1 is the read, and a two goal game is exactly what we want. The risk is Brentford in front of goal lately. They beat Tottenham 3-0 and won 6-1 at Birmingham in the cup, and their games have averaged 3 goals. Their set pieces can break a tight game open. We still want the quiet, low scoring one.

💬 Fulham have owned this matchup lately, and that is where the case starts. They have not lost in the last five meetings, and they won the last two 3-1 and 1-0. Sunderland are the bigger worry going forward. They score under a goal a game at the Stadium of Light and have won only 2 of their last 7 there. Their season began with a 1-2 loss at Ipswich where they were second best and made almost nothing. Fulham are not free scoring on the road either, with one goal in their last five away games. What they do have is control. They have won 5 of their last 14 and let in a goal a game, so they rarely get beaten up. This has the feel of a slow, careful match with very few clear chances. One goal should be enough, and 0-1 to Fulham looks the most likely score. The catch is the schedule. Fulham played a cup tie on Thursday and have had only 3 days to recover. Sunderland have had 8 days off and should start the fresher of the two. Cairney is out too, and the team that starts here may not look like the one from midweek. That could make this scrappy and give Sunderland a chance to nick it. We still want Fulham, who have the better players and the better record in this game.

💬 Goals follow Freiburg around, and that is the heart of this one. 15 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals, and they score more than 2 goals a game at home. They have won 5 of their 8 games at Europa-Park and 10 of their last 17 overall. Werder Bremen give plenty back at the other end. They let in more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 14 games also had 3 or more goals. Bremen are missing both of their first choice full backs, Agu and Weiser, plus striker Topp. That is a back line asking to be pulled apart by Freiburg's wide players. Freiburg have won the last four meetings between these two, including 3-0 and 5-0 wins. Bremen have enough up front to get on the board this time. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and that is a busy enough game for us. The risk is the calendar. This is Freiburg's fourth game in 11 days, coming just 3 days after a European playoff, so tired legs and changes are possible. Werder have had 8 days off and can sit deep to protect themselves. It is also the first weekend of the season, when new signings and new shapes can make games cagey. We still want the goals here.

💬 Dundee are a different team at Dens Park, and that is the case for backing them. They have won 6 of their 7 home games, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in under one. They come in fresh after a 2-0 derby win at Dundee United, with 8 days to get ready. Hibernian have had 3. Hibs are only three days on from a 3-2 home loss to Gent that knocked them out of Europe. That is a heavy night to shake off, and they have scored under a goal a game on the road. This is also their first league game since 9 August, so match rhythm is a question. Expect Dundee to set the tempo and get in front. Hibs have the players to drag themselves back into it before the hosts see it out, so a 2-1 home win is the most likely score. Now the honest part. Hibernian have won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs and Dundee have won only 2, so history sits against the hosts. Dundee's big scoring numbers are flattered by League Cup games against lower league teams, and they are without striker Simon Murray. We still like Dundee here. The rest gap and their home record are too big to ignore.

💬 Orgryte are the problem here, and that is why we are with the home side. They have lost 7 of their 10 away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They sit 15th in the relegation places, six points behind Goteborg. Goteborg are a much better side at Gamla Ullevi than their season numbers suggest. They let in more than a goal a game at home, far fewer than they do on their travels. Orgryte are exactly the sort of team they should be beating. Neither defence is watertight though. Goteborg have won 6 and lost 8 of their last 18 games, and 12 of those 18 had 3 or more goals. This is a Gothenburg derby, so expect it to be open and end to end. The hosts should lead, Orgryte should get one back, and Goteborg should hold on for a 2-1 win. We want that home win to have a bit of room in it. Here is the honest worry. Goteborg have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 18 games, so clear wins are not their habit. They have won just 1 of their last 5 and are without Ersoy and Mucolli. We are still with Goteborg, because Orgryte's away record is poor enough to hand the hosts control.

💬 Ajax turn up in poor shape for a trip like this. They played a 5-3 European tie only three days ago, and they are without Tsygankov and van Axel Dongen. More names are in doubt. Telstar have had 16 days to get ready for them. The home side are worth taking seriously. They have won 7 of their last 14 games and score almost 2 goals a game. 12 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. At their own ground they have won 4 of 6 and score more than 2 a game. Ajax are still the better team by a distance. They have won 8 of their last 14, score more than 2 goals a game, and they have not lost in six road games. They let in under a goal a game on those trips. That quality should win them the match, just not in comfort. A tired side with a patched up team has to chase a lively home team, and that usually costs something. A 1-2 Ajax win is the likeliest score, and Telstar staying within a goal is all we want here. The risk is that Ajax simply roll them over. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 14 games, and Telstar have lost all four meetings between these clubs. We still like the home side to keep this close.

💬 Shamrock Rovers sit top of the table, but they are a different team away from home. They have won just 2 of their 9 road games and score less than a goal a trip. They also land at Brandywell three days after losing in Finland and going out of Europe. Derry have had 9 days off. Derry are awkward at home. They let in under a goal a game across ten home matches and have lost only 3 of them. They are no free scorers, with 5 wins in their last 20 and just over a goal a game, but they make you work for everything. Rovers on the road are a modest side. They score under a goal a game away and let in close to 2. Games between these two are always tight. The last 20 meetings averaged under 2 goals, and the last five finished 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-0 and 2-1. A 1-1 is the likeliest score again. That is not a losing result for us, but we want Derry to go one better and take it. The warning is real. Derry let in five at Bohemians on 21 August and have let in a goal in three of their last four games. Rovers can also freshen up now their European run is over. We are with Derry to match them.

💬 Real Madrid win these games in control rather than in a rush, and that is where the case starts. They have reached 4 or more goals in a game only 4 times in their last 15. Madrid come in on five straight wins and have won 9 of their last 15 games. They are also short of bodies, with seven players out including Rodrygo, Endrick, Militao, Mendy and Tchouameni. A patched up side tends to manage a game rather than chase a big score. Malaga are the other side of this. They are newly promoted and sit 18th, with one point and one goal from their first two league games. They let in only about a goal a game, so they defend in numbers and keep things slow. Their forward Nino is one of five men missing, so there is little coming back the other way. Expect Madrid to take the lead, keep the ball and see it out at their own pace. A 2-0 home win is the likeliest score, and that leaves us plenty of room. The thing to watch is what happens if Madrid go two up early. Malaga would have to come out and chase it. The old meetings between these clubs were busy games with more than 3 goals a time, though the last of them was years ago. We are still happy to take the quieter game.

💬 Goals turn up wherever Rennes play, and that is the main reason we want the busy game. 11 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals in them. A week ago they tied 2-2 with PSG at their own ground. Rennes score just over 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game themselves, so they are involved at both ends. They have won 8 of their last 13. Le Mans are not here just to defend. They have lost only once in their last 13 games, and their games average 3 goals. They opened this season with a 2-2 at home to Brest, where they were opened up badly for long spells. They are also missing Larouci and Bamba, who both started that game, plus Yohou and Colas. That is a back line short of first choice men against much better forwards. Rennes should have too much in the end. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that is the sort of open game we want. The catch is Rennes at home. They score just over a goal a game across their seven home matches, which is well down on their form on the road. Le Mans have also tied 6 of their last 13, so they know how to slow a game down. We still expect this one to open up.

💬 Manchester United rarely win big, and that is the heart of this one. They have beaten a side by 2 or more goals just twice in their last 14 games. Eight of those 14 ended with a single goal between the teams. United will still be the better side here. They lost 0-2 at Hull on the opening day, but they made the better chances in that game. They should be closer to their level at Old Trafford. They score more than a goal a game and let in about one. Ipswich are an awkward visitor. They have lost only once in their last 14 games, winning 7 and tying 6, and they have won 3 and tied 3 on the road. They score almost 2 goals a game, so they carry a threat of their own. Ipswich come in on 5 days rest to United's 8, and that could tell late on. Even so, the shape of this game looks like a 2-1 home win, with United ahead and Ipswich still in it. That is the result we are playing for. The warning is real. Twelve of those Ipswich games were in the Championship, so this record has not been tested at this level. United are also expected to have Mount available, with Martinez and Rashford in line to come in, and a fast start could stretch this. We still want Ipswich to stay close.

💬 These two have a long habit of playing tight games, and that is where we start. The last 20 meetings averaged under 3 goals, and 8 of them finished level. Augsburg are steady rather than dangerous. They have won 7 of their last 15 games, but only 3 of their 6 at home. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They are without Mounie and Breithaupt, which leaves them short of a natural centre forward. Schalke arrive with a good run behind them, having won 8 of their last 12 games. Six of those 8 wins came by a single goal, so they win small. They also came up from the second tier, and they are missing Hojlund, Karaman and Kalas, so their attack is thin too. Put two careful teams together on the opening weekend, with neither able to field a first choice striker, and the game usually stays quiet. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that suits us well. The worry is Augsburg's own recent games. 8 of their last 15 had 3 or more goals, and they let in more than a goal a game at their own ground. One early goal can pull this open. We still expect a low scoring game.

💬 Como do not get beaten heavily. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 17 games, and they have lost only 3 of them. That habit travels well into a game like this. Napoli are the better side and should have most of the ball at the Maradona. They score more than a goal a game and let in less than one, and they have won 9 of their last 15. Their 2-0 win at Genoa flattered them though. They created very little in that game and still came away with two goals. Napoli are also missing defenders Buongiorno and Marianucci, so the pairing in front of the goalkeeper is patched together. De Bruyne, their best creator, is expected to start on the bench again. Como arrive unbeaten in 5, with 3 wins and 2 ties, and they score almost 2 goals a game. This game has become a grind. The last three meetings finished 0-0, 1-1 and 0-0, and the last five averaged under 2 goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score again, and a tight night like that is exactly what we want. The risk is that Como were second best at Udinese and still got their 1-1, so they can be pushed back. Napoli only need one moment at home to break this open. We are still happy to take Como to keep it close.

💬 Casa Pia have not scored a single league goal this season. They lost 0-2 at Gil Vicente, 0-7 at home to Benfica and 0-1 at Maritimo. That is the main reason we side with Moreirense here. Casa Pia are the weaker team in almost every way. Across their last 17 games they score less than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They have won only 2 of those 17 and sit bottom of the table. Nothing about them suggests they hurt anyone. Moreirense are hardly flying either. They score under a goal a game and have won 3 of their last 15. Their travel record is poor, at 1 win, 2 ties and 4 losses on the road. What they do have is fresh legs, with 14 days since their last game against Casa Pia's 6. Two weak attacks usually means a nervy, low quality game decided by one moment. A 0-1 away win looks the likeliest score, and Moreirense are the side more likely to find that moment. The doubt here is real. Casa Pia have tied four of their last eight at home, so a 0-0 is very much in play. Moreirense have also lost four of their seven away games. We still want the visitors: they are fresher, and the home side simply cannot score.

💬 Valencia have not scored a goal in La Liga this season. They tied 0-0 with Celta Vigo and lost 0-1 to Real Betis, so one end of this game looks close to shut. Deportivo are hard to beat at Riazor. They have lost once in their last seven home games, and across their last 13 they let in less than a goal a game. Their games are quiet ones, with just over 2 goals in total on average. Valencia travel with seven players ruled out, including both first choice full backs. A patched up back line usually drops deeper and plays safer, not more openly. Their games have also had just over 2 goals in total across their last 13. Both teams have had 2 goals or fewer in 9 of their last 13 games. Put a promoted side that grinds results out against a team that cannot find the net, and goals are hard to see. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest score here, and that is the kind of game we want. The honest risk is history. These two have averaged almost 3 goals across their last 12 meetings, so the past is busier than the current form. An early goal would also force Valencia to come out and chase. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 Cambuur have let in twelve goals in three games since coming up. They lost 0-4 to Excelsior, 1-3 at Fortuna Sittard and 2-5 to Feyenoord, and sit bottom with no points and a goal difference of minus nine. That is why we are with Twente. Cambuur do not keep games tight. Across their last 15 they let in just over 2 goals a game, and 10 of those 15 had 3 or more goals. They do score at more than a goal a game, so they should get on the board at home. Twente carry more than this defence can handle. They score more than 2 goals a game and have recently won 4-1 at Qarabag, 3-1 against PEC Zwolle and 6-0 against Dunajska Streda. They have won by 2 or more in 4 of their last 12. Cambuur have beaten them just once in their last 13 meetings. A 1-3 away win looks the likeliest score, and a margin like that is what we want. There are two real worries. Twente played in Baku three days ago and will probably change their team, and away from home they have let in more than 2 goals a game. A rested Cambuur can stay in this for an hour. We still think Twente have far too much for them.

💬 Cagliari turn their home games into quiet ones. At the Unipol Domus they score under a goal a game and let in just over a goal. Their games have just over 2 goals in total on average. That habit is the main reason we want the low scoring game. Cagliari also have less to attack with. Sebastiano Esposito is out, and an attack that already scores under a goal a game gets thinner without him. They have had 2 goals or fewer in 9 of their last 16 games, and only twice in 16 did one of their games reach 4 goals. Inter have no need to run at this. They have lost once in their last 15, and away from home they win 3, tie 4 and lose 1. On the road they score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. Expect them to keep the ball, wait, and use their extra quality late on. A 0-2 Inter win is the likeliest score, and that is the kind of controlled evening we are backing. The risk sits in the history. These two have averaged just over 3 goals across their last 20 meetings, and Inter score more than 2 a game. If Inter get a second goal early, Cagliari must come out and the game opens up. We still expect a contained night.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much. Lazio score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal, and Genoa's numbers are almost the same. There is very little between them, and games like that tend to be slow and congested. Lazio come in patched up at the back. Gigot and Marusic are out, Cataldi and Dele-Bashiru are missing too, and Patric and Sutalo are doubtful. A makeshift defence usually sits deep and plays safe. Their 1-0 win at Bologna was more about hanging on than playing well. Genoa bring almost nothing with them on the road. They have scored four goals in seven away games, winning 2, tying 2 and losing 3. They are awkward to break down, but they do not chase games either. Both sides have kept it to 3 goals or fewer in 14 of their last 15 games. Lazio have had 2 goals or fewer in 10 of their last 15, and Genoa in 9 of theirs. A 1-1 at the Olimpico is the likeliest score, and a goal apiece is exactly the game we want. The risk is the history between them. Their last 20 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals, and Lazio have won 14 of those. If Lazio's forwards click early, this can get away from us. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Goals follow these two around. Their last 19 meetings have averaged almost 4 goals, and Monaco won the most recent one at Louis II 2-1 in April. Monaco are the main reason to expect an open game. At home they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 1, and they score 2 goals a game there. Across their last 14 games, 10 have had 3 or more goals. They go forward in numbers rather than sit back. Marseille give plenty up when they travel. They have let in 2 goals a game on the road and have won only 2 of their 7 away trips. They also lose captain Balerdi from the back line, so their defence is a new one. Marseille can still hurt teams, scoring more than a goal a game with 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 16. A 2-1 Monaco win looks the likeliest score, and that is the busy, stretched game we are after. The caution is simple. Monaco played on 27 August and have had 3 days of rest to Marseille's 9, and Balogun, Fati and Minamino are all out. A changed, tired Monaco could make this flatter than the history suggests. We still lean to the open game.

💬 Neither of these teams can find a goal right now, and that is the heart of this one. Celta have managed just one goal in their last two league games. Across their last 15 they score just over a goal a game and have won only 5. Their front line is short too, with Borja Iglesias hurt and Marcos Alonso suspended, so the finisher is missing. Athletic are in worse shape. They sit bottom of La Liga on 0 points and have lost 8 of their last 11 games. They also score just over a goal a game, and their last five results read four losses and a tie. Both sides come in on three days rest, so neither should be flying out of the blocks. The history backs a quiet night as well. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged under 3 goals, and the last one finished 1-1. That is how this looks again: a nervous 1-1 with very few clear chances. The risk sits at the back rather than up front. Athletic are missing three defenders in Dani Vivian, Unai Egiluz and Benat Prados, and they let in 2 goals a game. Celta have also had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 15. If Celta's finishing wakes up, this could open up on us. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Famalicao do not win many games, and that is the case for Gil Vicente here. Famalicao have won only 3 of their last 14 and tied 8 of them. They score a goal a game and let in a goal a game, so almost everything they play in is tight. They have not won by 2 or more goals once in those 14 games. Gil Vicente have started the season well. They have won both league games, beating Casa Pia 2-0 and Rio Ave 1-0, and they did not let in a goal in either. Their last five read two wins, two losses and a tie, so they are not perfect, but they are defending well right now. Both teams are fresh, with a week off for Famalicao and six days for Gil Vicente. Neither side plays at speed, and the meetings between them have averaged under 3 goals. That points to a slow game with one goal at each end. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that is a result we are happy with. The warning is history. Famalicao have won 10 of the last 18 games between these two, so this is their kind of matchup. Gil Vicente have also been a lot weaker on the road than at home. We still want the visitors to come away with something.